Eastern Europe’s breaking point: When crises collide and the EU hesitates

Jessica Hendrick welcomes Sophie Gueudet, research fellow at the Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies working on the RE-ENGAGE project, and Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Ukrainian member of parliament and chair of the Parliamentary Committee on EU Integration to explore how external crises and internal fractures—from oil price surges triggered by the Iran conflict to Hungary’s veto politics inside the EU—are testing paths to accession.

Drawing on RE-ENGAGE’s four-scenario framework, the conversation examines whether Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are moving toward deeper integration, or drifting into fragmentation and uncertainty.

Jessica, Sophie and Ms. Klympush-Tsintsadze explore how energy shocks, political divisions and stalled EU decision-making are reshaping regional trust, resilience and strategic direction. As pressures mount, the credibility of the enlargement process—and the EU’s role as a geopolitical anchor—is being called into question.

What signals should Europe be watching for to understand where the region is heading? At what point do repeated crises stop being temporary disruptions and start reshaping the system itself? And if trust in the EU’s enlargement process erodes, who—or what—steps in to fill that gap?

Further reading:

RE-ENGAGE Eastern Europe Strategic Forecast

RE-ENGAGE country case study on Georgia

RE-ENGAGE country case study on Moldova

This podcast was recorded on March 30th 2026.

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