The Property Couch RBA Nov 2025 | Stagflation Risk Emerges as Confidence Drops
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Nov 4, 2025 Evan Lucas, a resident economist known for his sharp macroeconomic analysis, joins to discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hold the cash rate amid rising inflation concerns. He dives into the surprising October CPI results and the critical role of housing inflation. They also tackle the looming risk of stagflation, shifting consumer sentiments, and the potential for future rate cuts in 2026. With insights into rental market pressures and the impact of government spending, this conversation offers a compelling look at the state of the economy.
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Broad-Based Inflation Reacceleration
- Q3 headline inflation jumped to 3.2% with broad-based rises across goods and services.
- Trim mean climbed to 3.0%, the highest since late 2024, complicating the RBA's path.
Smoothed Averages Keep Cuts Plausible
- Smoothed three- and six-month averages show disinflation progress despite volatile quarterly reads.
- Markets still price further cuts, keeping 2026 rate cuts plausible if trends persist.
Policy Lags Could Delay Disinflation
- RBA's policy effects lag; only two of three earlier easing effects are filtering through.
- Consumer splurges (holiday/Black Friday) could delay visible disinflation until early 2026.