Politics, Patriotism and Polling: Forecasting the 2025 Federal Election

This is an Empire Nights event, proudly presented by the Empire Club of Canada.

The stakes could not be higher for Canadians as we choose our next government.  With President Trump imposing tariffs to economically coerce Canada into becoming the 51st state, threats to our water and borders, and the shifting of global alliances away from post-WWII norms, Canadians have awakened to a profound sense of patriotism and resolve.

Against this backdrop, Canada’s governing party has chosen Mark Carney to lead them into the election against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP at the national level.

Most experts agree that the convergence of these two events has made the outcome of Canada’s 2025 election less predictable. Just a few months ago, every poll indicated that the Conservatives were heading towards a decisive victory.  With a more competitive election on the horizon, the Empire Club of Canada has brought together a group of experts who will make sense of the rapidly changing political landscape.

Join Kory Teneycke, Co-founder and CEO, Rubicon Strategy; Hon. Seamus O’Regan, former Trudeau government cabinet minister; Kathleen Monk, Principal of Monk+Associates; and Laura Stone, Staff Reporter, Globe and Mail as moderator.

Kicking off this event will be renowned pollster David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data to provide special remarks and a presentation outlining polling data on the mood of the Canadian electorate.