Best of the Spectator Reality Check: Oil crisis – the worst we've ever seen?
19 snips
Mar 10, 2026 Tyler Goodspeed, former White House CEA chair and economic historian, talks energy shocks, supply disruptions and policy trade-offs. He explores the consequences of a Strait of Hormuz closure, why oil touches daily life beyond fuel, the limits of green substitutes, and the political risks of big price-support subsidies. He urges thinking of energy as insurance rather than cheap luck.
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Energy Shocks Kill Expansions
- Energy supply shocks are historic 'serial killers' of expansions and can trigger recessions even without other problems.
- Tyler Goodspeed warns that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure would be an unprecedented supply shock affecting 20% of global oil flows.
Strait Closure Would Outstrip 1973 Shock
- A sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could produce oil prices well above $100 and exceed the 1973 embargo in impact.
- Goodspeed notes pipeline alternatives and other routes cannot replace the ~20% of global supply that passes through the strait.
Oil Is Embedded In Everything
- Petroleum permeates modern economies beyond transport: shipping fuel, aviation fuel, petrochemical feedstocks and inputs for clothing, medicine and construction.
- Goodspeed emphasises few near-term substitutes exist for these fuels, so short-term shocks are hard to avoid.