Welcome to Cloudlandia Ep170: Thinking What You Think, Liking What You Like
In this episode of Welcome to Cloudlandia, Dean and Dan open with a candid reflection on how the spread of AI is making authentic human presence feel more valuable, not less. From the small signal of Dean wearing an analog watch and missing the daylight savings change, to Dan observing the quiet shift happening in his own sense of discretion about how he spends his time, the conversation quickly finds its footing. They discuss how AI has democratized capability while leaving vision as the truly scarce resource, and why keeping a human in the loop between yourself and the technology may be the smartest positioning for entrepreneurs right now.
The conversation moves through a rich detour on the making of Casablanca, a film nobody wanted to make, staffed by a rotating cast of writers and second-choice actors, that became an all-time classic through trial and error. This leads Dan and Dean into a broader discussion about Rick Rubin’s approach to music production: knowing what you like and being decisive about it, without needing technical ability. Dan connects this back to Strategic Coach and the idea that his thinking tools have always been an expression of thinking about his own thinking. His upcoming quarterly book, Who We’re Looking For, promises to capture exactly that kind of self-aware entrepreneurial identity.
Dean closes with a sharp framework for evaluating the past: the distinction between “could have,” “would have,” and “should have”, and why only one of those carries real emotional charge. He ties it back to their running thread on guessing and betting, suggesting that the people who will win in the next decade are those who can look forward with clarity about what they are uniquely suited to do. This episode is a good one for any entrepreneur who wants to think more clearly about where their real advantage lies.
SHOW HIGHLIGHTS
Links:
WelcomeToCloudlandia.com
StrategicCoach.com
DeanJackson.com
ListingAgentLifestyle.com
TRANSCRIPT
(AI transcript provided as supporting material and may contain errors)
Dean Jackson:
Welcome to Cloudlandia. Mr. Sullivan.
Dan Sullivan:
I'm here. I'm here.
Dean Jackson:
Okay. There You go
Dan Sullivan:
I can get about 10, 15 seconds of you preparing to focus on the next hour.
Dean Jackson:
You can? Okay.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Yeah. I can hear packages crumbling. I can hear ...
Dean Jackson:
Things are getting in order here, moving
Dean Jackson:
Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
Little bit of backstage before we get the front stage. I think that adds authenticity to the podcast. Flavor. Flavor. So
Dean Jackson:
They know it's real.
Dan Sullivan:
It's
Dean Jackson:
Not AI Dan and AI Dean talking.
Dan Sullivan:
So here's a question for you. Do you notice yourself becoming more human the more AI becomes pervasive?
Dean Jackson:
Yeah. It's the way.
Dan Sullivan:
In other words, real lationship.
Dean Jackson:
Yes. I think you're absolutely right.That's what I'm really noticing. It was a very interesting thing. This morning I went over to the cafe. I have to leave a little earlier because at 11, we do our podcast, but what had happened was I put a watch on today that I is an analog watch.
Dan Sullivan:
So it didn't account for the time change.
Dean Jackson:
Daylight savings. Exactly.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
And then I got in my car and I realized, oh my goodness. I haven't accounted for the time. That's funny.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah, you're-
Dean Jackson:
How would we know, right? Our bodies don't know. It's so ...
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Well, I noticed coming to Chicago, so I'm in Chicago today. And I really noticed the impact of daylight savings time because Chicago is right at the beginning, the new time zone. I mean, the time zone I'm in all the way for Chicago and Dallas are in the same time zone. Yeah. But Dallas would be very, very late in the time zone. Chicago's very early. So I noticed it. I don't notice it that much in Toronto because Toronto is more in the second half of the Eastern time zone. And so I don't notice the difference, but I was really struck. There's two things. One is you wake up. We slept in almost till seven this morning, seven o'clock, which would have been eight o'clock in Toronto. But on a travel day, my end of day sense of time gets a little bit screwed up, especially when I've moved from one time zone to the other.
So we usually get to bed later. So we didn't get to bed till 10:30 Chicago time. And we went eight and a half hours. I slept eight. I was in bed eight and a half hours. I never sleep eight and a half hours.
But boy, it was really bright. But then the jets start taking off and landing at seven
Dean Jackson:
O'clock.
Dan Sullivan:
And we're right in the flight zone for O'Hare. They literally come right over our house. Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
Well, it's
Dan Sullivan:
So
Dean Jackson:
Convenient for Strategic Coach, but ...
Dan Sullivan:
Oh yeah.
Dean Jackson:
Yes. I get it. Not so good
Dan Sullivan:
For
Dean Jackson:
Morning sleeping.
Dan Sullivan:
That was a series of happy accidents actually. We had been looking ... When we first got here, we used hotels, but they've got to the point where we had ... When you reach about 400 quarterly, you have 400 people come. Yeah. 400 coming. Then you want to switch over from paying for hotels to having your own conference center. So that's our number is about 400. And for example, we're not there yet in Los Angeles. We're not to the 400 mark. And there's no good solution to Los Angeles because the state taxes you, the county taxes you. Oh
Dean Jackson:
Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
And where we do our workshops in Los Angeles, it's the division between two municipalities. Part of the hotel is in Venice, and the other part of the hotel is in Santa Monica, and they both tax you.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah, that's crazy.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Yeah. So we would never have-
Dean Jackson:
Where
Dan Sullivan:
Is that? Where is it?
Dean Jackson:
Yeah. Where is the hotel in Santa Monica?
Dan Sullivan:
Well, it's right on Ocean Boulevard. So it's on the main drag in Ocean Boulevard, but we're ... You know where sort of the park is that has all the palm trees? Yeah. Yeah. Well, we're further south than that. We're probably a quarter of a mile south of the ...
Dean Jackson:
Like the Lowe's hotel there?
Dan Sullivan:
Just one hotel further, one for hotel further Lowe's. And so anyway, but it's really interesting. I mean, first of all, California being what it is right now, we would never have an office in Los Angeles like we have in Chicago because for lots of reasons. Chicago really works because we're right across from the runways at O'Hare, so it works really well. And our home, we're about 15 minutes from the airport from our home, so it's good. Yeah. Yeah. But we're right in the flight path and not much you can do about flight paths.
Dean Jackson:
That's true. Unless you're Donald Trump, get them diverted.
Dan Sullivan:
Well, they don't fly over his home in-
Dean Jackson:
It was an interesting joke.
Dan Sullivan:
It wasn't a joke. It wasn't a joke. It was a real thing.
Dean Jackson:
Oh, okay.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Conrad Black told the story.
Dean Jackson:
What's the official story then? Because I've heard-
Dan Sullivan:
Well, the story is when he moved into Mar-a-Lago and it took him a long time to get ... That was contested because the people of Palm Beach, whoever, the influential people in Palm Beach, they did not want Donald Trump in Palm Beach. So I think it took him ... I'd just be picking a number out of the air here, but I think it was five or six years before he could actually get ownership. And the other thing is it was ... Mar-Lago was something that was going to be torn down and divided into a lot of different new homes because it's like a hundred rooms in Mar-a-Lago and it's from the early 20th century. And so- The
Dean Jackson:
Gilded age. Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Yeah. It was a gilded age mansion. And so they disagreed with that because a lot of them are invested in real estate themselves. And that, I mean, the value of that property, because it goes from the inner waterway, what's that called? To
Dean Jackson:
The ocean, the inner coastal.
Dan Sullivan:
So it goes right from the intercoastal right across the main street and it has the beach too that goes right to the Atlantic. So I mean, just a prime piece of property. I mean, what that property would be worth is enormous. And so he got it, and then he noticed when he finally moved in, that planes from the local airport would fly right across his house. And he says, "Well, we got to stop that. I want to get a ruling that they can't fly over my house." And they said, "That's the flight path, that's the flight path." And he says, "Well, how could I stop that being the flight path?" And they said, "Well, you could be elected president of the United States."
Dean Jackson:
Okay, done.
Dan Sullivan:
Note to self.
Dean Jackson:
Hold my beer, as they
Dan Sullivan:
Say. Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
Okay. Hold my beer. I'll be right back.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. It's like the president of Venezuela saying, "Well, what are you going to do? Come and get me?
Dean Jackson:
" Yes, exactly.
Dan Sullivan:
Note to self.
Dean Jackson:
That's so funny. I saw today, somebody showed me there's a rumor or news going around that Iran is hacking the American financial system and erasing people's debt from these credit card companies. Yeah, exactly. So all the people on TikTok and stuff are saying- Well- Do they need my social security number?
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Yeah. Well, conspiracies are more fun than facts. Oh,
Dean Jackson:
Absolutely they are.
Dan Sullivan:
You're absolutely right. Yeah. And I mean, virtually all to a certain extent, within the last, let's say, 25 years, most Hollywood films and TV series, not necessarily Hollywood, but TV series are actual conspiracies. And I read a lot of, I've just read two by different authors. One was Mark Dawson, terrific writer out of Great Britain that dealt with a Chinese situation where China's developing a super weapon of one kind or another. And then I just read another one. Who is this one? Oh, Brad Thor. Is that his name? Very famous. A movie. Yeah.
Anyway, but they both dealt with Chinese. The one of them was a AI program that could take over all other AI programs. And the Chinese had developed this weapon, but the scientists who developed it wanted to defect to the United States. So that's the basic plot line. And the other one is a Chinese scientist who had created a bio weapon, basically a bio weapon, and he too was trying to defect to the United States. So that's the plot line for both of them. And it got me thinking that I bet books like this are not written in China. I bet you would probably not see Chinese novelists writing books like this. You're
Dean Jackson:
Probably right.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. So you have this interesting thing in America, you also have it in Great Britain where individual writers can come up with a plot and they probably have contacts in the intelligence services where they can get certain facts about what the intelligence services are, sort of games that they're playing. What if the Chinese did this? What if the Chinese did that? How would we respond? So there's this whole way of thinking about things which are fiction. They're actually fiction, but could be possibilities. And that gives, I think, the country that has the freest press and advantage because the military or the intelligence service can go to a novel and say, "We're going to feed you some plot lines and we'd like you to develop this into a story and we'll read the story and then we'll use your story to create new war games for ourselves." What do you think about that?
Dean Jackson:
Yes. Yes. I mean, there's so many ... I don't know what it is about conspiracy things or this conspiracy thinking that is so pervasive why we want to spend time thinking these kind of things. I think part of the reason that it kind of grows is because of our ability to spread them now and now even the ability for AI to create them and spread them. I mean, it's like multiplying on top of it.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Yeah. It's really interesting. Jeff Madoff sent me an article by a really good technology thinker by the name of Tim Wu. And I've read about three or four of his books and he's very, very insightful. And during the Biden administration, he was sort of in the White House think tank that was thinking about AI because AI came in during the Biden administration. And anyway, but he's talking about how high school students are now starting to reject the attempt on the part of the schools, like the faculty of the schools, the teachers, to use AI, that they won't accept any attempt by the school to, first of all, to find out the activities of the students. They're rejecting that and that they also have any message that comes out from the administration, from the principal or from the teachers, any attempt. And the students are really quick to notice that the teachers and the principals are using AI and they're absolutely rejecting, being done to by the administration, because the whole point of AI is that you can bypass the administration.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah. That's wild. When you look at the ... Yeah, I mean, where do you project? Where do you see this going if you bring now AI into this? Go into the
Dan Sullivan:
Way we
Dean Jackson:
Think about that.
Dan Sullivan:
Well, I think it depends upon who you are. More and more, if you try to predict the use of AI, you have to start with the actual individual who's using the AI. Yeah. Okay?
Dean Jackson:
Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
And that's not been true about previous technologies. And the reason is because it gives such instant individual capabilities that you have to think at a totally different level now. You say, "Well, where's AI going? " And I said, "Give me 10 people and I'll tell you 10 different ways AI is going-
Dean Jackson:
Right, right. It's funny. I was just having a conversation with Eben Pagan yesterday about this, explaining the difference between capability and ability,
Dan Sullivan:
And
Dean Jackson:
That AI certainly gives every ... It's democratized capability, but you still need vision and ability to use that capability. I think you just said it on the head that that's really the thing that there's never been a time where literally one person could do everything. I mean- Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
We've never had the ability for an individual to go exponential. And I think that's the crossover if you're looking for a historical crossover. I said the moment that you have AI, individuals now become exponentially more unpredictable, which for a conspiracist is a scary thought.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah. Yeah. I think it was funny, it was mentioning you to Eben about the idea, because I'm much more in your camp of keeping a human between you and the technology. And I think that that's really the ... I think that if it requires a vision, which that is, I think, where we can excel as human ... Like you were saying, everything is kind of upstream of AI. It requires, first of all, a vision
Dan Sullivan:
Has
Dean Jackson:
To have a directive for the AI. And the AI is the capability is that the real partnership of the human then is to partner your vision with someone who has the ability to use the capabilities, the tools of AI. I think where the thing is, because I think it's going to under-optimize even if it were me going to try and learn the moves, how to use the capabilities, there's a lot of friction in that. That's a lot of how.
Dan Sullivan:
Oh yeah.
Dean Jackson:
You know what I mean? There's a lot of how ... That's been my realization that I think what's important is for me personally to expand my vision of what's capable, what this AI is capable of, and not investing any time in developing a technical ability to use the capability, but expanding my network that way.
Dan Sullivan:
Vision is the win. It seems to me that you're taking the who, not how
Concept, which is yours to begin with, to a different dimension. And that is one of the things I noticed, and I think it's a function of age, is that my sense of discretion about what's worth even an hour of my time has grown. And in that sense, there's a question I have, and that is, can I be uniquely good at this? And I said, "I can only be uniquely good at what I'm already uniquely good at." So if it's teamwork with other people, I want the teamwork to enable me to be better at what I'm already great at. Same thing with technology.
Dean Jackson:
Yes. I think that's my lane. I've really, really figured that out now, even in more that conversation with Eben, I really think that what I can be uniquely great at is a vision of how these, of seeing ways that these capabilities could be deployed, like what's possible with those things, and then building a relationship with the who's who have that ability, because a lot of those things, even the ones that have the ability to use the capabilities, to use the tools, they may know technically how to do all of this stuff, but they don't have the ... They have a technical proficiency at it, but not a vision for what to do. They would do things as instructed kind of thing. If you tell them anything you want
To do, they could figure out how to make that happen. It goes back to that, I just wrote an email about it recently with Quentin Tarantino when I saw that Charlie Rose interview with him where he was describing a lunch that he had as aspiring filmmaker at Sundance with Terry Gilliam, who was at the time and is known for getting amazed his vision on the screen. And Quentin asked him at lunch, "How do you do that? How do you get your vision on the screen?" And Terry Gilliam told him, "Well, that's not your job." First of all, you can hire the best cinematographer, the director of photography, who knows what lenses and what exposures and what framing will get that on the screen. And you can hire the best lighting director who can create the right mood, create the costume directors and everything, all the people around you, your job is not to know how to do all of those things, but your job is to describe what you want, describe your vision.
That's all you have to do. And I think that's really the thing.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Yeah. The interesting thing about that is that I have my top 10 movies, my lifetime, top 10 movies and- If
Dean Jackson:
I've ever been
Dan Sullivan:
Posed
Dean Jackson:
To your lifetime
Dan Sullivan:
10 years. Yeah. And my all time favorite is a Danish film, but it's called The Babettes Feast. Okay. And I think it won the Academy Award for best foreign film a long time ago. I mean, it's 25, probably 25, 30 years ago. And it's a very magical film. And I won't use up time here, but if you look it up, it's really great. And I've seen it six or seven times, so it's for myself. Number two is Casa Blanca with Humphrey Bogard.
And that is probably in the history of films that became great that were not thought so at the beginning. That's probably all the all time champ because it was MGM and it was one of 60 films that MGM was producing at the same time. And originally, I think the main actor, Humphrey Bogart is the main actor, but originally it was supposed to be Ronald Reagan and because of scheduling and everything else, they ended up with Humphrey Bogart. They ended up with Humphrey Bogart. We can say, "Oh, now they had the second choice, somebody named Humphrey Bogart." And then Ingrid Bergman, it was supposed to be Susan Hayward. It was supposed to be very famous. And the reason was it wasn't supposed to be a great film. They didn't want a great film, they just wanted a new film on Tuesday. Ah, right. We need
Dean Jackson:
One on
Dan Sullivan:
Tuesday.
Yeah. But one of the things that's very, very interesting, they couldn't find a writer for the whole movie. And what they found was they had to have two writers. They had to have a romantic writer for the relationship between the Humphrey Bogart character and Ingrid Bergman, and then they had to have an action writer for basically the plot line writer. And all through the film, they were trying something out and it didn't work. So they brought in another who, you know, who could do it. And it's that experimental constantly innovating quality of what they were doing. And everybody hated the experience, like virtually everybody who was involved in this film hated the experience because there wasn't a set thing that they were just following through, the vision of one person and everybody had a say in it. And it's very interesting. There's some nice documentaries, why it turned out to be such a great film, and it's because it was kind of trial and error and experimental on everybody's part going through the film.
Yeah. Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
That's amazing. So I'm curious now, what are a couple others on your top 10?
Dan Sullivan:
Well, all three of the Lord of the Rings.
Dean Jackson:
Oh, really?
Dan Sullivan:
Okay. Peter Jackson. I think that's just such a phenomenally ... First of all, it's a very, very good translation of the book. The book. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's some characters left out. There's some whole situations left out, but he really captured it. And part of it was, it was all done at one time. All three films were shot at the same time.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah, for over years though, right? It wasn't ... Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. I think it was about a year and a half, year and a half. Is that right? We got all three films. And the reason is because they just couldn't get that kind of team back together again for a second movie and then a third movie. And nobody died like in Harry Potter, the main character, the main character died. And was it Dumbledore? I think Dumbledore. Right. And so that's always a great risk when you're making a film like that. And I can go down the list. I can't remember them right off the top here, but actually Mississippi Burning was one of my favorite all time movies, Gene Hackman. And these are just movies I would see over and over again. I just enjoy watching them. That's my ... When it comes to movies, I don't think there's any consensus on what the top 10 movies because I think- No,
Dean Jackson:
I think
Dan Sullivan:
Everybody's true. It's so subjective. It's so subjective. And it should be. And it should be.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah, yeah. I tend to really like thinking about movies more than looking at movies. I'm not action movies are like my least favorite. Yeah. Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Like the seven Sumerai, the original Japanese one I watched. A lot of his movies really are Kara Sawa, the film director. And yeah, it's what appeals to you.
Dean Jackson:
And I like Quentin Tarantino movies, but there's a guy who's like, that's a vision. I like it even more. Now that you know that about it, that he doesn't know any of the technical things.
I'm really kind of ... You see that more and more, or you recognize that more and more. I saw on 60 Minutes, they had a thing with Rick Rubin. Do you know who Rick Rubin is, the music producer? And it was pretty fascinating because he's produced some of the most amazing music, but he has no musical ability. He barely plays any ... That was the thing. Anderson Cooper asked him, "Do you play music and he said barely on his guitar and he has no musical ability. He doesn't touch the knobs and dials or whatever. And Anderson said, "Well, why do people pay you? " And he said, "Well, I know what I like and I'm very decisive about that. And artists have found that helpful."
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
And it's pretty interesting to hear that. He's got an ear. Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. It's liking what you like.
Dean Jackson:
Exactly. It's a very interesting thing that he says in all art that the audience comes last. The whole point of being an artist is making things that you like. That's the thing. When you 100% lean into what you like and you make the best thing that pleases you so much so that you want to share it with other people, that's what art really is more than trying to make art that pleases somebody or for an audience.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
And I think there's something interesting
Dan Sullivan:
About that. Yeah. I mean, it's risky, but there's something about people doubling down and taking the risk. I'm just going to double down on what I really like. I mean, you can totally miss the ... I mean, you can totally miss the target as far as popular appeal goes.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
I mean, nobody likes that. But there's something ... First of all, that act of courage of just staying with the thing that you really like, most people don't have that courage.
Dean Jackson:
Right. Yeah. And in a lot of ways, you think about what you ... All of the thinking tools with Strategic Coach are really an expression of you thinking about your thinking.
Dan Sullivan:
Yep.
Dean Jackson:
I mean, that's really what it is, right? I mean, it's like your ... And it's worked for you. And it gathers a lot of people who are just like you. It's a very interesting ...
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. The quarterly book I'm writing is going to be an interesting one. And it's going to work absolutely, or I think it's not going to work at all. It's called Who We're Looking For. And I just describe the experience of an entrepreneur who just gets total value out of Strategic Coach. And it's more of a thing that they're already doing, but they don't realize that they're doing this. And what we say is that what you're doing here, you're already doing this, you're already good at this, and now we're going to tell you why it's so important that you do this the way that you do it.
Dean Jackson:
That's interesting. When is that one coming?
Dan Sullivan:
That'll be first week of June. Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
Okay.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. The one that comes out, it actually comes out this week is called Guessing and Betting Confidence. I
Dean Jackson:
Like
Dan Sullivan:
That. The future is all guessing and betting, but are you confident about guessing and betting? Because the difference between guessers and betters is that some of them have a higher level of confidence. Among my people I know, I've got some really very strong Trump haters.
Dean Jackson:
Yes.
Dan Sullivan:
But I like the people. I like the people I'm talking to. Yes. And I know how they're ... And they said, now he's really done it. Now he's really in the soup with this war with Iran. And I says," Well, it's a guess and a bet, isn't it? It's really a guess and a bet. "And I said," On the Iranian side, they were guessing and betting that he's not going to do it. "And that was a bad guess and a bad bet. So I said," The future is just guessing and betting. "I remember when he first, he came down the escalator at the Trump Tower and said," I'm going to run for President. "And it was just comedy hour on mainstream television for ... Yeah. Can you imagine this guy running for president? Oh yeah. The joke. And
Dean Jackson:
One of my favorite nights in all of television history was election night, 2016.
Dan Sullivan:
I've got a whole file- CNN.
Dean Jackson:
I mean, watching-
Dan Sullivan:
All the networks.
Dean Jackson:
Watching Wolf Blitzer come to the conclusion that it's hopeless that Hillary's not going to win because you and I have talked about that before. It's like they were kicking off the broadcast with speculation of who's going to be in Hillary's cabinet and what's the ... It was all a foregone conclusion. They're already talking beyond. And to see the light just sort of dim from them as they realize what's happening.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Have you ever seen it, and I'm not quite sure even where it appears, but they're called the Young Turks. Have you ever seen that?
Dean Jackson:
Yeah, they were on ... Yeah, I think they kind of got banned or in some way they're not in their own platform there. Everybody went in their own way, like Glenbeck and Young Turks and Phil Wars, all those things. They all got deplatformed kind of thing. Yeah. But
Dan Sullivan:
I remember because I've watched the program because at seven o'clock, they came on at seven in the evening and they said," Well, the New York Times, 91% certainty that Hillary is going to be the next president of the US. "And then a half hour later is saying," Oh, now it's 78%. "Then at nine o'clock it's 56% when they said," Now it's Trump 91%.
Dean Jackson:
"Unbelievable, right?
Dan Sullivan:
I mean,
Dean Jackson:
What a thing.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Yeah. I've got all those saved. That's my Shaden Freud. It's my Shaden Freud. Sad and
Dean Jackson:
Freud, that's such
Dan Sullivan:
A
Dean Jackson:
Good ...
Dan Sullivan:
I was using that
Dean Jackson:
Word.
Dan Sullivan:
Extreme enjoyment out of other people's misery.
Dean Jackson:
Oh yeah, yeah. That's so funny. I pulled out that word the other day, the Shaden Freud, you have this thing of taking Shadenfornistic delight in something, but it was so funny. But we were talking last week about guessing and betting. And one of the things, I had some thoughts this week around that, because it harmonizes with this idea of creating a better past. And one of the ... When I start looking back at what is it about the past that is ... What will make a better path, a
Dan Sullivan:
Better
Dean Jackson:
Past, is that we would have made better guesses
Dan Sullivan:
Or
Dean Jackson:
Better-
Dan Sullivan:
No, better beths.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah. Yeah. This is the thing is that that's what I realized on reflection that I am a really good guesser and that's an interesting thing, right? But when I looked at it, that at the end, when you're looking backwards at the past, the things that you're going to be evaluating or excusing your underperformance or your wrong or bad guesses or bets is the three different flavors of I could have, I would have, or I should have. And it's a very interesting, slight different dynamic in those words because I could have means I had the option, but I didn't do it. I was aware that I had the option and it's a really ... The things that have the ... Where we attach emotion to it, the only one that has emotion to it is I should have.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
Because should have is a feeling of you're attaching a negativity to it, right? There's a less emotional charge to what could have.
Dan Sullivan:
I think it's totally ... It's kind of like a rewriting of what you actually did. It's a
Dean Jackson:
Revisionist.
Dan Sullivan:
That's right. It's a complete revisionism.
Dean Jackson:
And nobody ever says should have. When somebody is looking at somebody else's past decisions, they say," You should have done this, "but when people are evaluating their own, it's," I would have. "It would have is an external blame shifting. Well, I would have done that if this, like some external thing, I would have if I knew or if I had that or whatever, but could is really a ... That's the one that acknowledges that you had the
Option. And I think that it's a very ... So I was looking at ... The words that came to me were choosing your regret. What we can do today is let's choose our regret. You can either choose ... And it's going to come from acknowledging ... You can only do what you recognize as your options today. You recognize that you have, " I could do this and I could do and I could. "That's an interesting thing on its own, right? If you just kind of acknowledge, that's where the guessing comes in. Where is this going to be? I think if we're having this conversation 10 years from now, Dan, 10 years of Sundays from now, we're having a conversation like this, which I hope we are, that it's going to be a pretty good guess that AI is going to be way more integrated than what it is right now and that robots are going to be definitely a part of our lot in some way.
You can see right now looking forward what are going to be the things. So when you start evaluating, what could we do if we were certain that that's the outcome, which is almost certain now.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Well, my main prediction, and it's just based on what other technologies have done, is that there's actually going to be more jobs as a result of AI, but they're going to follow more the pattern what people are really good at. I was just reading it a week before last was the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations and that's probably the most consequential economics ... It's sort of economics, but it's more human nature, basically human nature because they didn't have a thing called economics in those days, there wasn't a term for looking at the economy, but he was just looking at how people ... And it's really a book about incentives. It's a book as what-
Dean Jackson:
Yeah, the silent hand, exactly.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. The invisible hand. Invisible
Dean Jackson:
Hand. Yeah,
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. Yeah. And basically, what is it that individuals respond to that the collective impact of people choosing what they want actually does everybody good, basically. That's what his main point and his main concept and a lot of ... I mean, we know Adam Smith, but actually Adam Smith was reflecting ... When you hear about somebody famous who came up with this idea, if you had the ability to go back and really look at, it was a conversation that was going on among 20 or 30 people, but this person just became famous for the idea that came out of all those discussions. So that same thing with Mark's. I mean, the stuff Marx was talking about was what a lot of people were talking about. But the main concept at the very, very center is the division of labor, that if you can have this person doing this all the time and this person doing this all the time, and you put the two contributions together, it's greater than two people than everybody just doing their own thing or everybody doing the whole thing, you just have them do the part of the thing that they're doing.
And then you have 250 years of the development of that idea and all the technology that's emerged. So steam engine was the big thing that was at factories and steam engines was the big thing that was happening in 1776, so March of 1776. And Adam Smith was reflecting that this seems to be a growing trend. And now we're at AI and you and I are having the discussion about AI and where's the AI going. But my feeling is that what I think you're seeing now is the collaboration of unique abilities. It's not the division of labor, it's ... AI is doing the division of labor and now humans can jump to the collaboration of unique abilities.
Dean Jackson:
I'm guessing and betting that that's what the VCR formula is going to facilitate is as a formula for people to collaborate. And that was the recognition that I had of the category, the categories that everybody has strengths in one of those in either vision or capabilities or reach.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
Well, each person has a unique ability that's exciting enough that two other people with different abilities would
Dean Jackson:
Collaborate. Yes. Yes. Agreed. I mean, you think about it's never been a more exciting time kind of ... I guess that's always ... You could say that it's true of any time, right? I mean, it's like ... I remember there's a thing in ... Did you see the musical Hamilton?
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah. Yeah. So that whole where they're the 1770s looking at the revolution, everything happening and there's one of the numbers is that there's never been ... Look around, everything is so exciting now. There's so much change in the air and every ... I think that's true. You could say that at every juncture, if that's what you're choosing. It's like what you always say, right? Your eyes only see and your ears only hear what
Dan Sullivan:
You- Yeah. It's really interesting because for some people, these are the worst of times.
Dean Jackson:
Right. Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
No, I mean-
Dean Jackson:
Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
I bet for the Ayatollah in February was a better month than March.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah. Yeah. But now you look at all of the things ... This is also the thing now, all the online stuff now is that the Iranians have kind of chosen his son as the new leader.
Dan Sullivan:
Who we have no proof that he's alive.
Dean Jackson:
Right, exactly. But it's interesting that now they're painting that narrative that now you've got his son who's 50s, in his 50s, as opposed to an aging 80 year old guy who's-
Dan Sullivan:
86, 86. Yeah,
Dean Jackson:
86 that now he's in his 50s and he's mad that you killed his dad and his mom and his wife and sisters only ... You got an angry guy now in the position of leadership, but this is where disconnecting from all of that stuff, it's all that noise.
Dan Sullivan:
I mean, there's some things we know now that we didn't know a month ago. One is we thought that they were more powerful than they were. Okay. They had just imported close to a trillion dollars of the latest Chinese and Russian air detection, and they had all this, and that one US or Israeli plane has been shut down and there's been 5,000, 5,000 sorties. So none of that technology was any ... My sense is that the Iranians are a minor player in this whole situation. I think the Chinese are the major player. And I think that the fact that the US is now engaging in decapitating the leadership of the country. They've done it twice now and I think that has now become a major topic of discussion in Russia. It's become a major discussion, certainly in Cuba right now, Cuba, because Cuba has just run out of energy.
I mean, they're gone as a country right now, unless they do a deal with the United States. But China is ... They've been talking about how powerful they are militarily, but none of their stuff works against the enemy, none of their stuff. So that really changes. The major conversation has to do with Taiwan, and you saw the expert on the Democratic side, AOC, her expertise on Taiwan. Did you see that?
Dean Jackson:
I did not. No. Oh,
Dan Sullivan:
You should go look at it. It's a career changing. She spent a career changing two or three minutes and revealing that she doesn't really know too much about the world besides what goes on outside of the Bronx.
Dean Jackson:
What did it for me with AOC was how delighted she was when Amazon chose not to relocate to New York and now they could give the $7 billion in tax credit. Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
Well, boy, we kept those 20,000 jobs from coming into. Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
Now we can give that seven billion to the teachers and the things and whatever without
Dan Sullivan:
A
Dean Jackson:
Hint of understanding.
Dan Sullivan:
The interesting thing is that everybody's ... I think what's happening right now, and our conversation has been a lot about this, is it's like thinking about what are you thinking about? The other thing is liking what you like, and the other thing is doing more of what you do, doing more of what you do, and that gives you a read on what's going to happen in the future. If you're in touch with ... So that sort of vision, capability, and reach, and everybody's sense of the future is what is it that you're uniquely putting together that relates to your unique ability and other people's unique ability, and that gives you a vision of the future, because you're going to make the best bets and the best bets on what it is that's uniquely yours.
Dean Jackson:
I like that. Thinking what you think, liking what you like.
Dan Sullivan:
And doing what you do your best. Yeah. And that doesn't have to do with creating conspiracies about the future. That's all based on solid evidence.
Dean Jackson:
Yeah. I think that's pretty amazing, actually. Yeah, that's good. I think that's really a good ... I'm going to think that through this week, along that same thing of the choosing your regret is ... That's like creating a better past is ...
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah.
Dean Jackson:
It's an interesting thing, right? It's a nice juxtaposition of words. Do you normally
Dan Sullivan:
Have to
Dean Jackson:
Choose? Yeah.
Dan Sullivan:
And that was an hour well spent.
Dean Jackson:
It really was. Was it already an hour? Holy cow. Yes. Well, Dan, these conversations are always a delight. I can guess and bet that they will continue being a delight long into the future.
Dan Sullivan:
Yeah. And I can promise you that next week I'll put just as much preparation into that one as I did to this one.
Dean Jackson:
Same. You know what, Dan? Just keep thinking what you think.
Dan Sullivan:
Liking
Dean Jackson:
What you like and doing what you do best, and we'll come back here next week and talk about it.
Dan Sullivan:
It's all the preparation you need.
Dean Jackson:
That's exactly right.
Dan Sullivan:
Okay. I love it. Thanks, Dan.
Dean Jackson:
Bye.
Dan Sullivan:
Bye.