The Nonlinear Library LW - I'd also take $7 trillion by bhauth
Feb 19, 2024
18:05
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: I'd also take $7 trillion, published by bhauth on February 19, 2024 on LessWrong.
So, Sam Altman wants as much money as he can get - the number he chose to give was $7 trillion - to build more chips for AI as fast as possible. Including in places like the UAE. Thus undermining his argument that OpenAI is helping with AI safety by preventing overhang and maintaining a lead for America, which was never a good argument anyway.
Well, I warned some people about him. To avoid getting fooled by bad actors, you have to avoid getting fooled by good actors. (In Altman's case, I had the advantage of more information about him making conflicting statements to different people.)
Anyway, this got me thinking about how I'd spend $7 trillion dollars. Such large numbers get hard for people to understand; you can say it's about $1000 per person alive, but giving it away equally isn't in the spirit of the challenge here. No, the point here is imagining megaprojects and massive economies of scale, to grapple a little bit with the enormity of trillions of dollars.
So, the below is how I'd spend that kind of money in useful ways. Much of this is stuff that'll happen anyway, and listing that is sort of cheating, so I guess I'll aim for over $7 trillion, and when I know someone with a notable possible improvement to something, I'll mark that with a *.
solar
Doing work requires energy, and the modern trend is towards electrification. The world is now generating an average of ~3.5 terawatts of electricity. Making 2 terawatts of average solar power generation seems pretty reasonable. With single-axis tracking you can get maybe 30% capacity factor, so that'd be 6.7 TW of solar panels. Anyway, at least $1 trillion of capital investment in solar panel production seems justified, and that's a good start on spending all that money.
If you just want a big enough production complex to hit the limits of cost scaling, that's a lot cheaper, probably a mere $100 billion. The "Inflation Reduction Act" probably would've made more sense if it funded a big solar panel complex instead of stuff like subsidies for water electrolysis (which is a dead end for at least a few decades) and rooftop solar (which is expensive and dumb).
PV panel production includes:
making silicon metal
making SiCl4 and distilling it for purification
reaction with hydrogen
slicing thin layers with diamond-studded wire saws
treatments including doping
application of ITO transparent conductor* and wires
The vast majority of solar panel production is done in China. It doesn't involve a complex supply chain like electronics production in Shenzhen. It's highly automated and shouldn't depend on low labor costs. Why, then, is it cheaper to make solar panels in China than America? My understanding is, that's because building the facilities is more expensive in America.
The machines used are about the same prices, so the difference comes from things like land, regulations, building construction, welding pipes, and management costs.
Why is that? Why is making manufacturing facilities more expensive in America? Maybe because everything is more expensive in America! If you have a choice, if you aren't bound by the locations of real estate or natural resources or funding sources or existing equipment, it seems like it's only worth doing something in America if the cost of doing it doesn't matter much.
In other words, I think the problem with making (exportable) stuff in the USA is largely currency values. The PPP/nominal GDP of Japan is 1.5x that of the US, Poland is 2x, and can you really justify building a factory in the US if you get 1/2 as much factory for your money? Similarly, it's a lot cheaper to get surgery in Mexico instead of the USA, or go for a long vacation in Thailand.
grid storage
Sunlight is inconsistent. So, having generated elect...
So, Sam Altman wants as much money as he can get - the number he chose to give was $7 trillion - to build more chips for AI as fast as possible. Including in places like the UAE. Thus undermining his argument that OpenAI is helping with AI safety by preventing overhang and maintaining a lead for America, which was never a good argument anyway.
Well, I warned some people about him. To avoid getting fooled by bad actors, you have to avoid getting fooled by good actors. (In Altman's case, I had the advantage of more information about him making conflicting statements to different people.)
Anyway, this got me thinking about how I'd spend $7 trillion dollars. Such large numbers get hard for people to understand; you can say it's about $1000 per person alive, but giving it away equally isn't in the spirit of the challenge here. No, the point here is imagining megaprojects and massive economies of scale, to grapple a little bit with the enormity of trillions of dollars.
So, the below is how I'd spend that kind of money in useful ways. Much of this is stuff that'll happen anyway, and listing that is sort of cheating, so I guess I'll aim for over $7 trillion, and when I know someone with a notable possible improvement to something, I'll mark that with a *.
solar
Doing work requires energy, and the modern trend is towards electrification. The world is now generating an average of ~3.5 terawatts of electricity. Making 2 terawatts of average solar power generation seems pretty reasonable. With single-axis tracking you can get maybe 30% capacity factor, so that'd be 6.7 TW of solar panels. Anyway, at least $1 trillion of capital investment in solar panel production seems justified, and that's a good start on spending all that money.
If you just want a big enough production complex to hit the limits of cost scaling, that's a lot cheaper, probably a mere $100 billion. The "Inflation Reduction Act" probably would've made more sense if it funded a big solar panel complex instead of stuff like subsidies for water electrolysis (which is a dead end for at least a few decades) and rooftop solar (which is expensive and dumb).
PV panel production includes:
making silicon metal
making SiCl4 and distilling it for purification
reaction with hydrogen
slicing thin layers with diamond-studded wire saws
treatments including doping
application of ITO transparent conductor* and wires
The vast majority of solar panel production is done in China. It doesn't involve a complex supply chain like electronics production in Shenzhen. It's highly automated and shouldn't depend on low labor costs. Why, then, is it cheaper to make solar panels in China than America? My understanding is, that's because building the facilities is more expensive in America.
The machines used are about the same prices, so the difference comes from things like land, regulations, building construction, welding pipes, and management costs.
Why is that? Why is making manufacturing facilities more expensive in America? Maybe because everything is more expensive in America! If you have a choice, if you aren't bound by the locations of real estate or natural resources or funding sources or existing equipment, it seems like it's only worth doing something in America if the cost of doing it doesn't matter much.
In other words, I think the problem with making (exportable) stuff in the USA is largely currency values. The PPP/nominal GDP of Japan is 1.5x that of the US, Poland is 2x, and can you really justify building a factory in the US if you get 1/2 as much factory for your money? Similarly, it's a lot cheaper to get surgery in Mexico instead of the USA, or go for a long vacation in Thailand.
grid storage
Sunlight is inconsistent. So, having generated elect...