The Power Of Zero Show Elon Musk Says Stop Saving for Retirement Because of A.I. (Good Advice?)
David McKnight dissects Elon Musk's recent claims that, because of AI robotics and automation, the future will have such hyperabundance that ordinary people may no longer need to save for retirement.
In Musk's future, robots are going to do all the work, AI will create prosperity, and society will provide everything you need at a little or no – cost.
While David likes Musk's vision for the future, he doesn't agree with him on this one.
When examined through the lens of economics, government obligations, and retirement realities, Musk's idea of the future collapses.
David identifies five specific reasons why that will happen.
The first reason, and perhaps the biggest flaw in Musk's argument, is that AI productivity doesn't automatically translate into personal wealth.
David points out that, during major technological revolutions, productivity increases faster than wages, capital investors capture most of the gains, and wealth becomes more concentrated at the top.
In the most optimistic AI scenarios, economists say that it takes decades for productivity gains to spread to the entire population; if they ever do.
The second reason why Musk's predictions won't probably come true has to do with the fact that AI won't fix the U.S. national debt or entitlement crisis.
The U.S. has $40 trillion in national debt, which is projected to grow $2 trillion per year over the next 10 years (with annual interest payments already over $1 trillion per year).
Furthermore, the Social Security Trust Fund is forecasted to run out in 2033, while the Medicare Trust Fund in 2031, and 10,000 baby boomers retire every day. Yet, no rapid explosion of AI innovation will change any of this.
The third pet peeve David has with Elon Musk's predictions is that AI has no built-in mechanism for sharing wealth.
"Musk's argument hinges on the idea that AI abundance will automatically be shared, but it won't. Here's how this will likely go down: the profits of AI companies will flow to shareholders, and governments will collect very little from that activity", says David.
The fourth reason why David disagrees with Musk's views for the future is that universal basic income is NOT a retirement plan.
The final reason why Musk is wrong about the need to save for retirement is that AI increases lifespans which, in turn, increases retirement costs.
Any major economist studying debt trajectories seems to agree: tax rates in the future are likely to be much higher than they are today.
The current status quo is where the power of your retirement strategy becomes indispensable.
Remember: if tax rates in the future are higher than they are today, then every dollar you withdraw from a taxable 401(k) or IRA is going to be worth a lot less than you ever thought possible.
David's solution consists of, over time, repositioning your money into tax-free vehicles – primarily Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s.
Mentioned in this episode:
David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires
David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track
Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight
PowerOfZero.com (free video series)
@mcknightandco on Twitter
@davidcmcknight on Instagram
David McKnight on YouTube
Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com
Moonshots with Peter Diamandis
Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)