Dreaming Against the Machine Episode 4: Reactionary Futurism, with Dave Karpf
Dave Karpf, a political scientist and critic of tech futurism, skews bad futurist books and the elites who love them. They roast nanotech fantasies, frontier nostalgia for Mars and underwater cities, and the myth that regulation stalled progress. The conversation weighs pragmatic state-led research and worries about who benefits from abundance-minded politics.
01:01:10
How Two Critics Met Over Bad Futurism
- Adam met Dave after finding Dave's public critiques of the same techno-futurists Adam studies.
- Dave agreed to review Adam's manuscript for an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant and liked it, which started their friendship.
Hate Reading As Method
- Dave uses 'hate reading' as a research method to understand influential bad ideas.
- He reads roughly one in ten books as a hate read to dissect why powerful people take them seriously.
Nanotech Fantasies Versus Laboratory Reality
- Eric Drexler's popular nanotech vision shaped public imagination but was rejected by working scientists.
- Adam says Drexler's Engines of Creation inspired nanobot fantasies that proved technically unworkable.
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Intro
00:00 • 4min
Meeting Dave Karpf and his hate-reading habit
04:00 • 1min
Hate-reading as an intellectual method
05:18 • 49sec
Examples of hate reads and More Everything Forever
06:07 • 4min
James Pethokoukis' Conservative Futurist
09:39 • 5min
Drexler, nanotech fantasies, and 'turn the dial' thinking
14:22 • 2min
What Drexler popularized about nanotechnology
16:48 • 3min
Progress slowdown myth and environmentalist scapegoating
19:29 • 3min
Appeal of frontiers: underwater cities and Mars
22:52 • 4min
Turner's frontier thesis and its modern echo
27:18 • 2min
J. Storrs Hall's Where's My Flying Car?
29:18 • 5min
Hall's scientific errors and conspiracy thinking
34:07 • 2min
Fans of science versus scientists
36:08 • 3min
Abundance, Ezra Klein, and reactionary futurism
38:53 • 6min
State capacity liberalism and pragmatic abundance
44:50 • 7min
Where government funding has worked
51:40 • 4min
Recoding America and improving government tech
55:40 • 3min
Worries about abundance allies and politics
58:12 • 55sec
Closing reflections on better futures
59:07 • 2min
Outro
01:01:03 • 3sec
#1735
• Mentioned in 26 episodes
Recoding America
How the Digital Revolution Reshaped Our Politics
Jennifer Palka
#7751
• Mentioned in 7 episodes
The Conservative Futurist
James Pethikoukas
#150
• Mentioned in 144 episodes
Abundance
The Future Is Better Than You Think
Peter H. Diamandis
Steven Kotler
In this book, Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler present a contrarian view that the future is brighter than commonly perceived.
They document how exponential technologies, DIY innovators, technophilanthropists, and the rising billion (the world's poor empowered by modern communication technology) are conspiring to solve global problems such as access to clean water, food, energy, healthcare, education, and freedom.
The authors provide examples and strategic roadmaps for governments, industries, and entrepreneurs to address these challenges, offering a optimistic outlook on the potential for technological innovation to improve human living standards.
#1855
• Mentioned in 25 episodes
Future shock
Toffler.
Published in 1970, 'Future Shock' by Alvin Toffler and his wife Adelaide Farrell examines the profound effects of rapid industrial and technological changes on individuals, families, and society.
The book defines 'future shock' as a state of disorientation and confusion resulting from the overwhelming pace of change.
Toffler argues that this rapid change leads to psychological ailments such as anxiety, hostility, and depression, and erodes traditional social structures like families and communities.
He identifies three main forces driving future shock: transience, novelty, and diversity.
The book also discusses the need for resilience and adaptive strategies to cope with these changes and suggests that societal institutions must evolve to support individuals in managing the 'adaptive range' required to deal with the accelerating pace of life.
#2772
• Mentioned in 18 episodes
Engines of creation
The Coming Era of Nanotechnology
Eric Drexler
Published in 1986, 'Engines of Creation' is a seminal work by K. Eric Drexler that introduces and predicts the vast potential of nanotechnology.
The book discusses molecular assemblers, which can construct objects atom by atom, and explores their implications for fields such as medicine, environmental science, and space colonization.
Drexler also addresses the social, moral, and governmental systems needed to manage the immense power of nanotechnology, including cautionary scenarios like the 'gray goo' hypothesis.
The book is notable for its visionary and sometimes controversial predictions, which have influenced both scientific and science fiction communities.
#10959
• Mentioned in 5 episodes
Nanosystems
Eric Drexler
Nanosystems provides a comprehensive introduction to molecular nanotechnology, exploring its potential to transform engineering, chemistry, medicine, and computer technology.
The book covers nanomechanical components, devices, and systems, including advanced manufacturing and computational systems.
It integrates physics, chemistry, mechanical engineering, and computer science to chart a path from current laboratory capabilities to future molecular manufacturing.
#5803
• Mentioned in 9 episodes
Where's My Flying Car?
J. Storrs Hall
#272
• Mentioned in 98 episodes
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Nate Soares
This book delves into the potential risks of advanced artificial intelligence, arguing that the development of superintelligence could lead to catastrophic consequences for humanity.
The authors present a compelling case for the need for careful consideration and regulation of AI development.
They explore various scenarios and potential outcomes, emphasizing the urgency of addressing the challenges posed by rapidly advancing AI capabilities.
The book is written in an accessible style, making complex ideas understandable to a broad audience.
It serves as a call to action, urging policymakers and researchers to prioritize AI safety and prevent potential existential threats.
#1218
• Mentioned in 34 episodes
More Everything Forever
AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley's Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity
Adam Becker
Adam Becker's "More Everything Forever" delves into the exaggerated promises and dangers surrounding AI, particularly those promoted by Silicon Valley figures.
The book critiques the apocalyptic fears of superintelligent AI, arguing they are science fiction rather than scientific fact.
Becker acknowledges AI's current value but highlights the overhyped capabilities and the troubling ideologies, such as eugenics, intertwined with AI rhetoric.
He criticizes the focus on AI dominance over addressing real-world issues like climate change.
Ultimately, the book warns against the potential for increased human misery and degradation resulting from unchecked AI development.
This week, Adam talks with political scientist and internet curmudgeon Dave Karpf about some really bad ideas about the future in two really bad books, why those books are bad, why Ezra Klein is too credulous about one of them, and whether Adam should organize an intervention for Dave to stop him from reading so many bad books in the first place.
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About the show:
Dreaming Against the Machine is a podcast about envisioning a realistic and hopeful future. Each week, the show’s host, journalist and astrophysicist Dr. Adam Becker, will have an earnest (and entertaining!) conversation with a guest about possible futures, seen through the lenses of history, science, and culture. In a world where tech oligarchs and their power fantasies are driving visions of the future, Dreaming Against the Machine aims to take back the terms of the public conversation about what our world can and should be.
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