Judging Freedom

Scott Ritter : How Close Is Putin to Escalation?

Jan 12, 2026
Scott Ritter, a former U.S. Marine intelligence officer and arms inspector, shares his insights on Kremlin motivations and escalating tensions. He critiques Trump's peace promises and discusses the failure of arms control agreements, emphasizing Russia's nuclear advancements. Ritter highlights changing perceptions of U.S.-Russia relations and outlines Russia's military strategy focused on attrition. He also addresses the implications of covert operations in Iran and the ramifications of recent drone attacks on Ukraine’s leadership.
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INSIGHT

Arms Control Is Effectively Dead

  • Russia views the drone strike on Putin's residence as a decisive breach that ends meaningful arms-control talks.
  • Scott Ritter says Russia will operationalize new intermediate-range missiles and abandon arms-control parity efforts.
ANECDOTE

Cancelled Mock Arms-Control Talks

  • Scott Ritter planned to join Russian institutions for mock arms-control talks in 2026 but those plans were canceled.
  • He reports Russian interlocutors told him they no longer believe in arms control and refused to continue the exercise.
INSIGHT

Oreshnik Becomes Core Deterrent

  • The Oreshnik intermediate-range missile has been operationalized as a central element of Russian deterrence.
  • Ritter argues Russia will keep and expand these capabilities because they now provide strategic overmatch.
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