MRKT Matrix Markets Wrestle With Oil Spike and Iran Conflict
Mar 11, 2026
Markets wobble as oil surges and Middle East tensions threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation talk heats up with CPI vs. the Fed’s preferred gauge under scrutiny. Investors rotate into big tech while software names and private credit face sharp moves. Meta unveils new in-house AI chips amid broader chip and AI deal activity.
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Oil Spike Sent Markets Lower
- Oil spike and Iran tensions are driving market moves and weighed on the Dow with a ~300 point drop.
- WTI jumped ~5% to near $88 and Brent to ~$92 despite a 400M barrel IEA release, highlighting supply risk via Strait of Hormuz.
CPI/PCE Divergence Could Complicate Fed Decisions
- CPI rose 2.4% YoY in February but Fed's preferred PCE gauge may show stronger inflation near 3.1% YoY, widening the CPI–PCE gap.
- Divergence stems from different weights: CPI emphasizes housing while PCE weights goods like software and jewelry higher.
Iran Boosts Exports Through Hormuz Despite Conflict
- Iran has increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz, sending roughly 2.1 million barrels per day largely to China via a sanctioned shadow fleet.
- Markets still fear a prolonged strait disruption could remove ~3.8 million bpd from global supply and amplify volatility.