ChinaTalk National Intel Council on The IC's Pivot to Asia
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Sep 9, 2024 
Michael Collins, acting chair of the National Intelligence Council, brings 28 years of intelligence experience focused on East Asia. He discusses how the intelligence community shapes policymaking and the unique challenges of assessing China’s military capabilities. The conversation highlights the importance of collaboration with external experts and the need for transparency in national security narratives. Collins also explores the concept of 'narrative intelligence' and strategies to enhance long-term forecasting, addressing complexities in the U.S.-China relationship.
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Intelligence Advantage
- Intelligence provides a unique national security asset by increasing knowledge.
- The US benefits from global presence and partnerships for insights.
Intelligence Focus
- Intelligence agencies offer unique understanding of leadership intentions and military capabilities.
- They also leverage global partnerships and open-source information.
Long-Term Forecasting
- Long-term forecasting involves analyzing motivations, capabilities, and the global environment.
- The further out the forecast, the less relevant unique intelligence becomes.