Net Assessment Is There an End in Sight for the US War in Iran?
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Mar 26, 2026 A sharp discussion of the US campaign in Iran and the strategic stakes in the Strait of Hormuz. They debate mine warfare, asymmetric Iranian leverage, and whether seizing territory or using ground forces could reopen shipping. Planning, intelligence gaps, and the political costs of prolonged combat also come under scrutiny. The conversation closes with reflections on media, accountability, and a tribute to a veteran war reporter.
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Early Decapitation Reduced U.S. Leverage
- Killing high-level Iranian leaders early burned the U.S. administration's strongest escalation option, narrowing credible follow-on coercive choices.
- Zach Cooper argues the Trump team 'played their best card' early (leadership strike), leaving fewer deterrent options as Iran escalates with asymmetric tools.
Reopen Hormuz With Comprehensive Coastal Suppression
- If reopening the strait is a priority, conduct rapid coastal suppression: destroy launch sites, C2 nodes, and maritime threat platforms while deploying mine-countermeasure assets.
- Melanie Marlowe lists A-10s, Apaches, jamming, and mine-countermeasure convoys as necessary components rather than symbolic seizures.
Karg Island Would Be Leverage Not A Solution
- Seizing Karg Island is politically tempting but strategically limited: it provides leverage over Iranian exports but doesn't automatically secure the strait.
- Zach Cooper and Christopher Preble note Karg Island is far from Hormuz and an occupation could be another target without reopening shipping lanes.