Up First from NPR Bet on Anything, Everywhere, All at Once
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Mar 1, 2026 
Bobby Allyn, an NPR correspondent covering politics and finance, explains the boom in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. He walks through how these apps work and who uses them. He discusses niche markets, regulatory fights, insider risks, and why billions have poured in. The conversation looks at rapid growth and uncertain futures for these platforms.
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TikToker Camped Out To Win Anthem Bet
- TikTok user Caden Booth camped outside the Super Bowl to time the national anthem rehearsal and won a bet on its length.
- He expected crowds of others doing the same but used that real-time info to place a successful mention-market trade.
Origins Proved Markets Beat Polls
- Prediction markets began in academic experiments like the 1988 Iowa presidential market and were more accurate than polls, proving monetary bets can aggregate information effectively.
- Tarek Mansour turned that idea into Kalshi after 2016 demand to directly trade political outcomes, financializing opinion into tradable contracts.
Typical Users Tend To Lose Money
- Most users lose money on prediction apps; platform profitability data is opaque because companies are private.
- External analyses of Polymarket and Kalshi show typical user experiences resemble casino losses more than consistent gains.