A New Scramble for Africa

The Horn of Africa has long been described as one of the world’s most unstable regions. But instability, as we know, is rarely accidental. It is often the outcome of history, geography, and politics colliding over time.

From contested borders drawn at the end of colonial rule, to unresolved questions of statehood and sovereignty, the region has been shaped by incomplete state formation and recurring external intervention. Add to this competition over resources, ethnic fragmentation, and inter-state rivalries, and the Horn becomes not just a regional fault line, but a space of real geopolitical consequence.

Today, those dynamics are intersecting with a changing global order. Governments in the Horn are navigating a world that may no longer be defined by clear rules or stable hierarchies; one marked instead by transactional diplomacy, great-power competition, and strategic fragmentation. At the same time, shifts in US economic policy and aid under Trump are forcing African states to reassess assumptions about development, dependence, and autonomy.

To understand the geopolitics of the region, and how the Horn along with Africa at large is viewing the world, I reached out to Dr Hassan Khannenje, Director of the HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies in Nairobi. Dr. Khannenje argues that the Horn is increasingly emerging as a strategic theatre amid great power competition. His critique of US policy and the broader West is biting; and his perspective on Africa-China ties is one of a pragmatist. Fundamentally, Dr. Khannenje worries that in the emerging world disorder, a new scramble for Africa is likely to play out as global powers compete for maritime chokepoints and the minerals required for future technologies.

As always, I hope you enjoy the discussion. Please like, share, subscribe, and rate the episode. And if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, don’t hesitate to reach out to me.