
State of the Markets #239 Alexander Ineichen - This major sector has shifted into a weak position...
Mar 24, 2026
Alexander Ineichen, Swiss-based analyst and author known for work on institutional risk and nowcasting. He discusses energy-driven market regimes, why benchmarking dominates institutions, and his momentum-plus-revisions scoring system. Topics include sector and theme rankings (fossil energy, metals, clean energy), currency and bond score shifts, and how he applies the model to real portfolios.
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Now Casting Beats Forecasting For Risk Management
- Alexander Ineichen shifted from forecasting to "now casting," focusing on identifying and measuring trends rather than predicting precise futures.
- He combines institutional risk research with momentum and earnings-change metrics to manage risk without claiming certainty.
Trainee Commentaries Led To Investment Books
- Alexander described how his books grew from hands-on hedge fund and options research at UBS into practical investor guides like Absolute Returns and Asymmetric Returns.
- He traced his writing origin to being the trainee who volunteered to write market commentaries at an options desk in the late 1980s.
Institutional Benchmarks Persist Because They Lower Cost And Risk
- Benchmarking to indices persists because it's convenient, reduces costs, and aligns with committee-based institutional decision-making.
- Ineichen argues committees favour low-cost, diversified, benchmarked solutions even if they preclude entrepreneurial outliers like Buffett.












