TWSS x CNBC's Dan Nathan & Guy Adami: "He Said / She Said" - Blue Owl's Private Credit Fiasco

9 snips

Feb 25, 2026

Jen Sarbuck, market translator who makes complex finance accessible, and Kristen Kelly, private markets specialist focused on alternative investments. They unpack stress in private credit around Blue Owl’s gated retail vehicle and why asset managers’ stocks are under pressure. They also explore how private credit finances AI and data centers, plus the rise of prediction markets and the risks around liquidity and insider information.

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INSIGHT

Private Credit Liquidity Mismatch Revealed By Blue Owl Gate

Private credit faces a liquidity mismatch when retail-focused semi-liquid vehicles get redemptions and hold long-dated loans.
Blue Owl gated its evergreen fund after heavy redemptions despite selling some loans near NAV, showing timing — not necessarily asset — stress.

INSIGHT

BDCs Trading Below NAV Blocks Easier Liquidity Solutions

Selling an evergreen retail vehicle into a publicly traded BDC can force a deep haircut if the BDC trades well below NAV.
Blue Owl abandoned that sale after its BDC traded ~20% below NAV and chose gating plus gradual asset sales instead.

ANECDOTE

Personal Experience With A Gated Semi Liquid Investment

Kristen Kelly shared a personal experience of being gated in a semi-liquid REIT investment in 2022.
That firsthand encounter highlights how retail investors can suddenly lose access when funds impose gates.

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We teamed up with Guy Adami and Dan Nathan to discuss two major developing market stories ahead of meeting in Miami for the iConnections Global Alts conference. The first topic is stress in private credit, centered on Blue Owl’s retail-focused semi-liquid vehicle (Blue Owl Capital Corp II) facing heavy redemptions and gating, highlighting the liquidity mismatch between retail redemption needs and long-dated loan assets. They contrast the gated evergreen structure with Blue Owl’s publicly traded BDC that was trading roughly 20% below NAV, discuss Blue Owl’s reported loan sales near NAV, and explore why the issue is pressuring related stocks like Blue Owl and Blackstone despite an S&P 500 that appears indifferent. The group connects the private credit conversation to how AI/data center buildouts are financed, including references to Meta-related structures and concerns about CoreWeave’s ability to raise capital for data center obligations, and notes that credit markets often reprice quickly only after complacency breaks. The second topic is prediction markets, focusing on Kalshi and its partnership with Tradeweb to publish analytics and potentially enable institutional trading of binary outcomes on events like Fed decisions and macro data, raising questions about democratized access, liquidity constraints, regulatory gaps, spoofing, and the role of insider information, along with implications for politics and whether more information is always better.

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