The China-Global South Podcast How South Asian States Navigate Rivalries Between the U.S., China, and India
Jan 30, 2026
Mandakini D. Surie, a development consultant with decades of South Asia experience, and Sagar Prasai, an advisor on regional geopolitics, discuss how small South Asian states respond to shifting great-power rivalry. They cover declining U.S. influence, China's expanding economic reach, strategic hedging between India and China, infrastructure competition, and the rise of mini-lateral cooperation among vulnerable states.
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Geography Trumps Global Rhetoric In Nepal
- Nepal's foreign policy orbits India and China more tightly than it does the US, driven by geography and immediate dependency.
- Ordinary Nepalis feel the dollar's dominance, but elites focus on India-China dynamics for survival and leverage.
Visibility Changes The Impact Of Critique
- Many Global South leaders have long complained the rules-based order is unfair, so Western admissions now read as belated validation.
- Visibility of critique matters: a Western leader's complaint receives far more global attention than decades of Global South critiques.
Account For Elite Incentives
- Recognize that ruling elites, not abstract national rationality, drive foreign policy choices in small states.
- Design engagement strategies that account for elite incentives and regime survival pressures, not just national interest models.