Unexpected Value - Poker · Daily Fantasy · Sports Betting #105: Simply Simtacular
Jun 13, 2023
Steve Buzzard, a DFS product leader and analyst at Stokastic, joins Jordan Cooper to unveil the powerful new Stokastic Sims tool. They explore how this tool enhances both beginner and advanced players' strategies in daily fantasy sports. Steve reveals insights on lineup ownership, projection accuracy, and the difference between optimal and winning lineups. Listeners will learn practical tips for improving their returns, avoiding common pitfalls, and understanding how simulations can transform their approach to DFS.
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Think Field-First, Then Entries
- Sim thinking requires a different mindset: build representative fields, not only your best 150 lineups.
- If you expect a contest to be huge, let the sim model the field and grade your entries against that field.
Fix Optimizer Clumpiness With Sims
- Use sims to spot clumpy or low-diversity optimizer outputs and pick the single best stack per team instead of multiple similar stacks.
- Sufficient lineup pools let the sim surface the clear best stack for each team and improve diversity automatically.
Balance ROI With Cash Percentage
- Look beyond ROI and use cash% and win% to balance variance; combine top ROI and top cashing lineups for bankroll stability.
- High ROI winners can be ultra-volatile; include mid-ROI, high-cash options to manage swings.
