Perspectives Investment Trends in Focus: Rebalancing Portfolios in an Unbalanced World
Jan 22, 2026
Ashley Lester, Chief Research and Development Officer at MSCI, and Axel Kilian, Chief Client Officer, discuss crucial investment trends as markets approach 2026. They highlight the impact of geopolitics and the rising significance of AI investment. They emphasize that clients are seeking scenario frameworks over mere forecasts. The conversation also delves into concentration risks in portfolios and the growing interest in clean energy to support AI infrastructure. Finally, they compare the divergent strategies of the US and China in AI and energy sectors.
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Consensus Forecasts Often Miss The Mark
- Consensus equity forecasts rarely capture actual yearly outcomes because annual return volatility is high.
- Ashley Lester shows returns typically spread widely around means, so two-thirds of years fall far from consensus.
Give Clients Frameworks Not Predictions
- Provide clients frameworks, scenarios, and stress tests instead of bold directional market calls.
- Axel Kilian says helping clients structure uncertainty is more valuable than predicting exact market direction.
Three Interlinked 2026 Market Themes
- Geopolitics (geo-economics), AI, and private credit are the three key market themes for 2026.
- These trends interact: private credit helps fund AI-enabled infrastructure and data center investment.