
ChinaTalk Software Abundance for Government With Cognition's Russell Kaplan
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Mar 9, 2026 Russell Kaplan, co-founder of Cognition and creator of the AI software engineer Devin, previously at Scale AI and Tesla. He discusses why government systems stay stuck on ancient code. He explains how AI agents can shrink long migrations into weeks. He explores AI for cybersecurity, fraud detection, procurement shifts, and a coming post-coding world focused on framing problems.
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U.S. Government Spends Big On Antiquated Software
- U.S. government software is costly yet antiquated, with over $100B/year spent and many critical systems still on legacy code like COBOL.
- GAO found 10 critical legacy systems in the 2010s and only three have started modernization, causing slow progress.
AI As The Next Abstraction Layer For Programming
- Programming languages evolved up abstraction layers to reduce arcane specialist knowledge, from punch cards to Assembly to COBOL to Python.
- Russell frames AI as the next rung enabling natural-language instructions to write software directly.
AI Will Collapse Software Switching Costs
- Software abundance means code becomes easy to change and move, collapsing vendor switching costs used as moats.
- AI agents can perform tedious 24/7 migrations, forcing vendors to compete on product value rather than lock-in.
