The China in Africa Podcast Why Private Bondholders Matter More Than China in Africa's Debt Debate
Feb 27, 2026
David McNair, Executive Director for Global Policy at ONE.org and lead author of the 'Great Reversal' report, explains shifting finance in Africa. He discusses how China now collects past loans, private bondholders hold the largest—and costliest—share of external debt, and why multilateral banks and the G20 Common Framework matter. Short, data-driven take on who actually shapes Africa’s debt landscape.
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China Is A Small Share Of Africa's External Debt
- African countries owe $708 billion in external debt, but only about 11.5% is owed to China when commercial bank exposure is included.
- ONE.org data shows Chinese bilateral debt $62 billion plus Chinese commercial banks $17.4 billion versus the $708 billion total in 2024.
Chinese Debt Is Highly Concentrated In Few Countries
- Chinese exposure is concentrated in a few countries: Angola, Ethiopia, and Kenya account for most of the bilateral lending.
- Examples: Angola reduced Chinese debt from ~$25bn peak to $7.3bn; Ethiopia from $13.4bn to $5.38bn; Kenya converting $3.5bn to RMB to save interest.
Try To Lower Borrowing Costs By Fixing Ratings And Disclosure
- Reduce the cost of private debt by improving data disclosure and negotiating with credit rating agencies.
- ONE recommends reforms around government transparency and engagement with rating agencies to lower borrowing costs.