War on the Rocks Update from the Battlefield: Drones, Distance, and Diminishing Returns for Russia
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Apr 9, 2026 
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow and Russia security analyst who visits the front lines, breaks down the changing battlefield. He discusses how drones reshape a vast dispersed kill zone. He explains limits of Russian infiltration tactics and Wagner methods. He covers Ukraine expanding strike depth, the growing missile threat, and how Iran’s war affects the conflict.
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Widen The Kill Zone With Middle Strike Campaigns
- Ukraine should expand a middle-strike capability to hit operational depth and logistics, not just the front.
- They are targeting Russian air defense and ports to disrupt reserves and export revenue, filling the 30–300 km strike gap.
Many Drones Needed To Kill Hardened Targets
- FPV and bomber drones require many strikes to destroy targets; individual video clips overstate ease of effect.
- Kofman estimates 15+ drones to stop a protected AFV and often 30+ to finish a tank, with many drones lost or missing.
Drone Employment Occurs At Industrial Scale
- Both sides operate drone ecosystems at scale with thousands of FPV sorties daily.
- Kofman estimates Ukraine may be launching 6,000–8,000 FPV drones per day in summer, plus bomber drones and mine-layers.