Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes War in the Middle East
Mar 13, 2026
Aziz Alghashian, Gulf policy analyst, Ellie Geranmayeh, Europe–MENA policy expert, and Eran Etzion, former Israeli diplomat, discuss shifting regional power after attacks on Iranian infrastructure. They examine Iran’s new leadership, Israel’s strategic aims and domestic politics, Gulf states’ dilemma between restraint and escalation, and prospects for negotiation and a regional security conference.
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Two Conflicting Israeli Perspectives On The War
- Israeli action is driven by two lenses: Netanyahu's personal/political aims and the professional security establishment's limits.
- Netanyahu pushed for regime-change options despite military chiefs in Israel and the US saying regime change by force was not feasible.
Iran's Control Of Hormuz Shapes The War's End
- Israel underestimated Iranian and proxy resilience and the regional consequences of targeting Iran's infrastructure.
- Control over the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran leverage to shape the war's duration and global economic impact.
New Supreme Leader Signals Continued Hardline Course
- The new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is surrounded by IRGC-linked hardliners and frames the conflict as continuing resistance.
- His first statement pledged to uphold his father's legacy and vowed to continue the war without outlining an end.
