Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 18th, 2025
Sep 18, 2025
Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, dives into jobless claims and the current state of the labor market. She highlights the health of employment but raises concerns about its concentration across sectors. The discussion also touches on the impact of Fed policies on hiring dynamics and market reactions. With insights on the risks ahead, Nela paints a vivid picture of how economic shifts could affect both workers and businesses alike.
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Small-Cap Rally May Be Temporary
- Recent small-cap strength looks like a short-lived rotation rather than a regime shift.
- Structural forces and lack of earnings growth make long-term outperformance unlikely versus large-cap growth.
Dot Plot Reflects Deep Committee Dispersion
- The Fed faces unusually high dispersion and uncertainty about long-run outcomes.
- Dot-plot disagreement reflects genuine differences on where neutral rates and inflation will land.
Don't Rely On Fed Forward Guidance
- Avoid relying on forward guidance when policy and economic paths are highly uncertain.
- Expect the Fed to act meeting-to-meeting rather than commit to long-run pins.