Macrodose The Illegal War On Iran
Mar 4, 2026
An analysis of recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran's military responses. A look at munitions economics and how cheap drones strain defence supplies. Discussion of regional attacks targeting refineries, ports and shipping chokepoints. Examination of energy, insurance and trade disruptions and the political and resource limits on a prolonged military campaign. A focus on the UK's international financial and material vulnerabilities.
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Cheap Drones Overwhelm Expensive Defenses
- US and allied strikes on Iran provoked Tehran to build large cheap missile and drone arsenals that overwhelm expensive Western interceptors.
- James Meadway notes Iran, Russia and the Houthis use low-cost drones and saturation barrages to exhaust $4M interceptors and create munitions shortages.
Choke Points Turn Military Action Into Economic Warfare
- Regional strikes and shipping disruptions function as economic warfare by threatening choke points like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.
- Meadway links closed refineries, halted LNG production, diverted shipping and airport shutdowns to global price shocks.
Gas Markets Are Far More Vulnerable Than Oil
- Natural gas markets are tighter than oil, so a short blockade or threat in Hormuz could spike gas prices far more than oil.
- Meadway cites Goldman Sachs estimating a four-week Hormuz blockage could push EU gas ~130% higher.