Russian Roulette How the Iran War and the Price of Oil Impact the Kremlin's Calculus
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Apr 2, 2026 Janis Kluge, an expert on the Russian economy and energy markets, and Hanna Notte, a specialist in Russian foreign policy and nonproliferation, unpack Moscow’s calculations amid the Iran war. They discuss how oil price shocks and disrupted logistics affect Russian revenues and budgets. They also explore Russia’s cautious support for Iran, risks of escalation, and consequences for relations with the U.S., Israel, and China.
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Russia Benefits From Iran War Despite Misgivings
- Russia sees the Iran war as an undesirable development that paradoxically delivers benefits like higher oil revenues and strategic posturing.
- Hanna Notte ties elevated oil prices and diverted Patriot interceptors to tangible short-term gains for Moscow while warning against catastrophic escalation.
Strait Of Hormuz Shock Could Rapidly Spike Prices
- The current disruption of oil and gas is a political logistics shock centered on the Strait of Hormuz and could rapidly flip prices.
- Janis Kluge notes today's market understates risk: supply offline plus destroyed LNG capacity mean prices could spike if the chokehold persists.
US License Temporarily Boosts Russian Oil Revenues
- The US general license letting sanctioned Russian oil already at sea be sold is a short-term technical fix that raised Russian oil receipts.
- Janis Kluge explains it removed discounts and produced premiums regionally, roughly doubling per-barrel returns versus winter months.