The David Frum Show America on the Brink of War With Venezuela
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Nov 5, 2025 Quico Toro, founder of Caracas Chronicles and a keen analyst of Venezuelan politics, dives into the escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions. He discusses the U.S. naval buildup and the complexity of Maduro's regime, emphasizing that Venezuela is more of a trafficking route than a drug producer. Toro explores the implications of potential U.S. airstrikes, the factors keeping Maduro in power, and the historical shifts in Venezuela's democracy. The conversation ultimately reflects on paths to achieving Venezuelan relief without military intervention.
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Bombing Could Backfire And Enable Purges
- Airstrikes might target military bases, naval installations, or remote airstrips, but their long-term effects are uncertain.
- Toro warns a short bombing campaign could help Maduro purge suspected plotters if strikes end prematurely.
Retaliation Risk Exists But Is Strategically Unlikely
- Maduro buying shoulder‑launched anti-air missiles in the past raises fear of asymmetric retaliation, but such moves would be strategically risky.
- Toro regards large-scale terrorist reprisals as unlikely though not impossible as a last resort.
De‑Escalation More Likely Than Democratic Change
- The most likely outcome is de‑escalation or a short scare; a negotiated settlement seems unlikely now.
- Toro cautions the U.S. might prefer an extractive military regime friendly to U.S. interests rather than a democratic outcome.
