The Brian Lehrer Show How the War in Iran Might End
Mar 23, 2026
Nate Swanson, a career U.S. foreign policy official who led Iran work at the National Security Council and now directs the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council. He discusses why Tehran might set the terms of an end to the war. Short takes on failed diplomacy, differing U.S. and Israeli endgames, Iran’s possible nuclear concessions, and how the conflict reshapes regional strategy and economics.
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Insider View Of 2025 Iran Negotiations
- Nate Swanson negotiated with Iran for both Biden and briefly for Trump and saw a serious, professional negotiation effort in spring 2025 with five meetings.
- The Trump team sought stronger nuclear constraints than JCPOA, but talks stalled as domestic politics and impatience led to a return to military options.
Negotiating Styles Broke The Deal
- Trump demanded a no-enrichment outcome, seeking a deal tougher than the 2015 JCPOA, which Iran viewed through the 2015 framework and resisted.
- That mismatch of expectations and styles made compromise unlikely and contributed to the negotiations' collapse.
Seek Verifiable Off-Ramps Not Just Messages
- Markets and global commerce create political pressure to seek a real off-ramp rather than just messaging; both Washington and Tehran have incentive to end the fighting.
- Beware that pauses can be tactical delays to allow more U.S. forces to arrive, so verify intent beyond statements.