Afford Anything | Make Smart Money Choices First Friday: Jobs Are Up. So Why Does the Economy Feel Worse?
10 snips
Apr 3, 2026 A deep look at a surprisingly strong jobs report versus weaker hiring signals and where layoffs are actually happening. Analysis of why the Fed paused, why mortgage rates stay high, and how a sudden oil and gas spike can ripple through inflation and sentiment. Coverage of proposed 401(k) rules, shockwaves from Vicki Robin’s writing, and major student loan system changes borrowers should watch.
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March Layoffs Concentrated In Tech And Transportation
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 60,000 job cuts in March, a 25% rise from February, driven largely by tech and record transportation sector cuts.
- Tech led with ~18,720 cuts (Dell, Oracle, Meta Reality Labs) while automotive hiring plans offered some offset.
Fed Holds Rates While Raising Inflation Forecast
- The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and said persistent inflation warrants a 'wait and see' approach, raising GDP to 2.4% and inflation projection to 2.7%.
- Markets expect only one rate cut in 2026, reflecting the Fed's concern about inflation staying above target.
Why Mortgage Rates Stay High Despite Fed Pauses
- Mortgage rates remain elevated (30-year ~6.44%) because the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4% amid inflation fears, and mortgage pricing tracks that yield plus a 2–3 point spread.
- Paula Pant explains investors view 10-year Treasuries as a long-duration benchmark and that mortgages' effective holding period (~7–10 years) links them closely to the 10-year yield.
