10 Predictions for 2026 with Bob Doll

Jan 13, 2026

Ask episode

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

Markets appear strong as we head into 2026, but beneath the surface, risks may be rising faster than returns. Each January, CEO and CIO of Crossmark Global Investments Bob Doll joins us on the show at Faith and Finance to offer an annual outlook, and this year he characterizes the environment as a “high-risk bull market”—a market capable of gains but vulnerable to setbacks and volatility.

Looking back to 2025, Doll believes his predictions were roughly “seven out of ten.” Corporate earnings proved far more resilient than many expected, and with the Federal Reserve avoiding aggressive tightening, markets continued to climb. Earnings, Doll notes, remain the lifeblood of stocks: as long as profits grow and the Fed is not hostile, equity markets tend to trend upward.

For 2026, Doll’s first prediction is that U.S. real GDP growth will improve modestly—from about 2% to roughly 2.5%. He attributes much of that to a large government spending package passed in an election year, providing stimulus to both households and businesses.

However, inflation remains stubborn. Doll does not expect the Fed to reach its 2% target unless a recession occurs—something he does not foresee. Instead, he anticipates inflation closer to 3%, making “affordability” a defining political issue, especially around healthcare and housing, where structural challenges remain unresolved.

On interest rates, Doll expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fluctuate in a narrow range—from the high 3% area to the mid-4% area—while credit spreads widen modestly. For bond portfolios, he favors short- to intermediate-maturity bonds over long-duration bonds.

Corporate earnings should remain strong in 2026, though not at the exceptional pace of 2025. With consensus forecasts near 14% earnings growth—almost double the historical norm—Doll expects solid but not spectacular performance. As a result, he anticipates single-digit stock market returns, not another year of outsized double-digit gains.

Sector-wise, Doll sees continued strength in financials, technology, and communication services—areas tied closely to artificial intelligence—while materials, discretionary, and utilities may lag. International stocks could also surprise investors. If they outperform U.S. equities for a second consecutive year, it would be the first such streak in two decades. Stronger liquidity, improved earnings abroad (especially in emerging markets), and potential dollar weakness all contribute—even though many Americans invest little overseas.

Artificial intelligence remains a powerful driver of productivity and market speculation, though Doll expects volatility as investors sort out the true winners and losers.

Faith-based investing, he believes, will continue its momentum as more individuals, advisors, and institutions seek alignment between values and capital. Politically, Doll predicts Republicans retain the Senate but lose the House, constraining major legislative ambitions.

If 2026 proves to be a high-risk bull market, Doll’s takeaway is straightforward: remain diversified, stay invested, and practice patient stewardship through uncertainty.

On Today’s Program, Rob Answers Listener Questions:

My husband and I are at retirement age, and we have four retirement accounts: three from former employers and one Vanguard IRA. Altogether, there’s about $200,000. Should we consider consolidating these accounts? And if so, is it best to consolidate them into the Vanguard IRA?
My husband and I are both 70. He’s retired, and a cancer survivor, and I’m still working and may work another five years. Our home and vehicles are paid off, and we have about $350,000 saved—roughly half in CDs and the rest in cash. I don’t really know anything about stocks or bonds. Should we take any risk with our money at this stage, or leave it where it is?

Resources Mentioned:

Remember, you can call in to ask your questions every workday at (800) 525-7000. Faith & Finance is also available on Moody Radio Network and American Family Radio. You can also visit FaithFi.com to connect with our online community and partner with us as we help more people live as faithful stewards of God’s resources.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.