The Briefing Palmer rejects Epstein link + What to expect from interest rates in 2026
Feb 1, 2026
Peter Martin, economist and journalist, explains inflation and Reserve Bank choices in plain terms. He breaks down why a surprise inflation jump reshaped rate forecasts. He outlines drivers like supply constraints, labour shortages and policy effects. He also explains why interest rate moves matter beyond mortgages.
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Rate Rise Seen As Likely
- The RBA is widely expected to lift the cash rate tomorrow after a surprise inflation spike.
- A 0.25 percentage point rise would move the official rate from 3.8% to 4.05% and raise typical mortgage rates too.
Mortgage Holders: Brace For Higher Payments
- Mortgage holders should expect their typical mortgage rates to rise alongside the cash rate.
- Prepare for higher repayments as typical rates may move from about 5.5% to 5.75% and potentially higher.
Inflation Forcing The RBA's Hand
- Inflation at 3.8% sits well above the 2–3% target band and pressures the RBA to act.
- The Bank can only directly influence spending, not supply-side pressures driving prices up.