Was Yesterday a Fakeout Or a Breakout? Markets React To September Jobs Number

Episode Summary:

• September Jobs report
• TSLA's annual shareholder meeting

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Meet The Hosts:

Dennis Dick

Twitter:https://twitter.com/TripleDTrader

Spencer Israel

Twitter: https://twitter.com/sjisrael

Joel Elconin

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Spus

https://www.premarketprep.com/

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Unedited Transcript

Coming to you live from downtown Detroit. This has been zingers pre-market prep with your host Joel Kahn. And this is a foul tile poppy here. Isn't it. And Dennis Dick, I bet I will buy the stock with everything that you need to start your trading day

morning. Good morning. Good morning, everybody. Happy Friday. Welcome to pre-market prep, Spencer Israel still without a camp. But with my Dorset tones, Joel's here. Dennis is here too. He'll be back in a second, but I promise he's here. Uh, we're going to talk a Baba today. We're going to talk Tesla. We're gonna talk a jobs number.

We're going to hopefully be joined by Marcus. Hi Cotter. Yes, the man, the myth, the legend back at 8 35. Would you take your time at the end of the show? We will share some, uh, boots on the ground research as well that Mitch did on his own Accordi yesterday. And we'll take questions from our chat and, uh, yeah, that w w I guess we should probably start by talking about yesterday though.

W uh, w Joel, bring up your charts if you can. And let's start with, um, yesterday's action, because the question I'm asking. To the both of you or Dennis, whenever he joins is a breakout or fake agile. What? Well, right now the numbers are saying a breakout. Uh, we'll just run things down. We'll talk about yesterday's action.

When Dennis comes on here. Oh, he is okay. Uh, well, there's talk about today's action then we're up three and three quarters handles ahead of the big jobs number. Pre-market high, all three and a quarter, nothing there pre-market low 82 and a quarter, nothing there. So mark, it has to find my levels and a wild, the upside yesterday, 43, 21.

That's a high that looks like a good early target on the upside. Our crude bouncing back up 52 cents. It's 78 81. Gold just battling it's way up to 1800 up for a box of 17 63, 10 silver in the red by 9 cents at 2257 Bitcoin. Having a good day having a great week. Ah, that's up 1385 at 55, 8 55. And the theory that's up $20 and 25 cents at 36 46 50.

First question I have though for triple D and match is without the technical, a computer wizards that run this show. How did it go yesterday? How did it go? How did it go? I have nothing to do with any tactical stuff behind the background. I've never ran a YouTube. Yeah, it was tough. It was tough, Joe. I gotta say, I miss your ability to handle the charts.

I was there, like trying to handle everything, but Hey, we got it down. Right? Dennis, actually, somebody tweeted us. It was the best show ever. You know why that was me? Oh, was you,

you know what it was? We actually got through like 20 topics, Dennis. I don't know bitches on mute again. They can't match. What's wrong with you? Like you're using the technical group. I don't know what's going on. My mic. Doesn't want to get picked up by my desktop audio. The same thing that happened yesterday, but now they can hear me.

I sign it. You say you can't hear you calling you muted match. He's a mime. Now you just, you gotta read his lips. Hello is the way I had it on my computer. They still don't hear you. Well, there's always, there's always a delay. There's always a delay. How much of a delay? It was about seven seconds. You're going to get kicked off the show.

If you don't get this mic figured out he was right on deck to replace Spencer, but now he's falling apart. Spencer, we love you. I had it. I might, I came downstairs. I was able to do some work a little bit later in the day and I had it on like, go, oh, I just want to see how things, uh, you know, how, you know, how things got started in the chat ripping you guys a new one.

I was just like, okay, maybe the, I hope they get the show, but I just giving you a hard time triple D and match. I'm sure it was a great show. It's me. Don't give me a hard time. All I do is speak on standard scars is where we're at. Then you can give me a hard time, but I don't know. And it's helping, it's not working.

It's not working. It's not working. Nice move yesterday.

It's working. It's okay. We forgive you match. We forgive you match. We got to figure out why you keep going on mute though. You didn't match three inside days in a row. Right. And the market was just, it was just bottled up. They really tried to bust it on, uh, on Wednesday. Like they, and you call the triple daycare bus, like get this thing under 4,300 kids that I get to sing under 40 to 70.

And then I would look in the thing would be trading like 42, 96, 97. And literally I would turn my head and it would be like 40, 43 0 3. And I'm like, what? And it was just like big buyers came in. Then once they got it over the high, but we broke out to old resistance, new support. We're 30 handles away from that.

We got a jobs number. Let's take out 44, 21. That'd be a pretty good week and, you know, close on the highest the week, the only wildcard is how we react to, I mean, this market is still and you know what? I still agree with Spencer. I still think you're making the high by the end of the year. And I think it kind of proved itself two days ago that in the end, this market just, you know, wants to go higher.

So, you know, are we out of the woods? You know, are we going to retest those loaves? Are we going to fill that gap? I tend to think we're going to fill that gap, Joel, the gap from two days ago, because there's not much in there and you might not see it on the S and P futures, but you definitely see it on spy, which I'm talking about the gap from 4 35 11 up to 4 30, 8, 20, there's a three point almost 30 handle gap in there from the regular trading session, which spy obviously is involved in.

Um, so I think we're going to fill that. I think I would be a buyer down cold resistance of 4 35. So we get down 30, 40 handles from here. I'll be buying more stocks. So, you know, ideally, you know, you'd been buying, you know, at the dip for 27, for 28, but I was buying different selling reps on the stocks. I did buy, probably sold them too soon because I did not expect the big breakout the two day follow through move.

It was 120 point run from the low. So, you know, do we fill the gap? I think we do. I think you're a buyer though, if we do right. I want to ask you all about the close yesterday. Cause we close pretty weak Mitch and I were watching and over bought, you know, we went from oversold over bought. And literally if you look at, you know, where, how, where this market went, we went from 4 28 spot.

At about one o'clock in the afternoon, two days ago to at the open, we just run the four forty one, a hundred and thirty points equivalent that is on the S and P futures in literally three hours and overnight session, a pre-market session and an hour of, of a morning trading crazy. And, and Paul and Paul saying I've changed my tune of the market.

In two days, I haven't changed my tune. I've been saying buy dips and sell rips. I've been just on the fence, fading every move and continuing to fade, move saying, if we fall 30 handles here, I'll be a buyer. If we ride 30 handles here, I'll probably be a seller. I'm doing the same thing, Paul, that I do every single day.

And that is buy deps and sell reps. Intra-day overnight, wherever it is. I tweeted out almost every single day. I think everybody knows what I'm doing. Um, it's just been working. The fade trade has been working. There's not a lot of false. So I don't think I was bullish or bearish. Was I Polish? Oh no. You know what you, uh, the way you taught me out of, uh, you know, I mean, I was re I like, if we took out those loans, right?

If, if, if right, if your uncle bill, I can't say that on TV. Um, but I would, the thing is, isn't the way you turned me a little bit. It's like, where people, where are you going to put your money? Where are you gonna put if you take out of the market and where are you going to put it, Bitcoin. Okay. You can put it in Bitcoin, you put it in a gold, you know, she bought no, I mean, we, I mean, and that is no place to go and that, and that's a sad excuse.

But it's the truth and, and, you know, the inflation is incredible. You know, I know it just from this house build, which is stressing me out. I've talked about it on the show multiple times. I mean, material on this house is just unbelievably, went up in price. Like, I mean, everything that we budgeted is coming in 30, 40% higher on the material, just on the material.

That's your, you know, that's from, you know, budgeted in the fall to where we are, I guess one year, a year over a year. So you're seeing 30, 40% rises. In some cases, like I said, in the electrical wire 300% rises in the price of stuff. I mean, you can say, there's know no inflation on TVs like Kathy would, you know, obviously in technology, maybe there's a little bit of deflation there, but in every other aspect of her life, it's very, a lot of inflation and it isn't running at three, 4%.

Some things are running a three, 4%, 5%, but the things that use the most gas food. Housing, that stuff is running way hotter way hotter than 5%. So if you want to keep up with inflation and you are just putting your money in the bank or sticking it under your mattress, you are now probably 20% poorer than you were at this time last year, because the biggest expense to every single person out there that's normal, it isn't just, you know, ridiculously wealthy is their house and housing costs have went up substantially and Ontario.

They went up 32% last year. I heard in the states, um, I read a figure. I don't know if that's right. It was up 26% last year, but you can see easily in most places, houses are up over 20% year over year in some places they're up 30%, 40%. That's a huge expense to maintain. That's a huge expense to everyone.

How do you, you know, keep up with that. You gotta stay invested because you know, markets move up with that as well. So that's my rant to stay invested here. That's why I don't move to a hundred percent cash, even though a lot of things are telling me that there is a lot of risk out there, but I think the biggest risk out there is inflation.

And I don't know how else you'd beat it. And that's why the commodity trade has gotten hot. That's why, you know, crypto has gotten hot. That's why a lot of things with. So Dennis, maybe you can get the house finished, uh, by the time for next tax season. So you can just, so you can just give it back to the government.

Could you get all your getting out tax so much taxes to everybody now? Oh. Tax to everyone all the time. 53.5% bracket in Ontario, 55 and a half as a high bracket. It's an incredible amount of thing, but that's just income tax that doesn't include property tax that doesn't include sales tax. That doesn't include any other tax they've come up with.

I mean, when you think about at the end of the day, you're lucky in a terror. If you're keeping 25% of your money on an after-tax basis at the hyper. So, obviously we know there's corporations that can get around and stuff in that, but there's a lot of, people's pay a lot of tax. You're always welcome here.

Once you get your house built, well, your taxes are going up too. So, you know, we know, you know, over 400,000 or 500 Joe, Biden's gonna raise your taxes on you too, Joel. So you're no place to hide taxes are going up there as well. I don't need to go on a 53 and a half percent, but they're probably going higher.

All right, Spencer, I do want to give Dennis a tip of the hat here. Cause I, I forgot if it was Monday. He may have been Friday. I don't know what did the days all blend together? Uh, but uh, he said one of these days Alibaba's going to rip higher like 10, 20%. And that has happened. That has happened. It was Wednesday.

Was it? I don't know it was Wednesday. Maybe it was Wednesday. Um, and, and so now. I'm curious as someone who, who is long, I'll be Baba. Dennis, what are you thinking here? I'm sticking with my long-term Alibaba. If I had it on for a trade, I would probably be thinking one 60 to 1 61 was an old resistance point.

20 points in two days is pretty good. Thanks. Tunkel Charlie taking the steak. Um, I, I think, I think it's a good pop. I'm not coming in and buying Alibaba. Now. I'll tell you that, uh, the, the, the buy was when we set it up the trade for you two days ago, we were saying we can lean on the low 1 38 43. The stock was trading 1 41 and obviously pulled down to under one 40.

So if you were even getting, I know my buddy Mike there in Nashville, he, he bought some and he was thanking me for it. And I know there's some other traders that bought it too. So good job to all the traders who did buy it. I mentioned it. I never did buy some more. I thought about it, but I'm bouncing around doing a lot of things.

I never thought about it again. And I looked and it was up 10 bucks and I was like, oh, I missed it. But, um, is there any news out of China or is it just a good old fashioned.

Chinese stocks rallied that helped to Juul. So it's a good point. jd.com rally. So this wasn't just exclusive dally, Bob. It's a fantastic point. E M you can look right there was trading up substantially as well. China had a relief pop drastically, massively oversold, which is why we were saying. And Bob was the same reason is that it was just oversold so much that it needed a relief topic.

Got it. Whether it was China, whether it was uncle Charlie, that was the catalyst. Um, that's obviously, you know, never going to be proven without a hundred percent accuracy, but it had a catalyst with uncle Charlie. I mean, Charlie monger taking the doubling of stake in LA Baba, but the second catalyst was the, the Chinese stocks bounce back, but they were.

So oversold stocks have these wicked rallies. It's like, you know, like we I've said this before, when you're in a bull markets up like an escalator down, like an elevator when you're in a bear market. And Alibaba is definitely in a bear market that it's down, like an escalator up like an elevator. Well, you just had an elevator ride up three floors, you know, are we going up another three floors?

There is a potential to do that. But the easy money was made probably two days ago, 60, 30, 8. We snuck over that. And the pre-market I believe. Yeah, it got closer to 1 61. Now what? 60 38 is your September 17th high. That's the last time it closed over one 60. So I keep an eye on that. The next high comes in at 1 63 0.07 and also settled back close to one 60 that day.

So there's yourself zone 1 61, 1 62, 1 63 third wave coming in the, in the chat. We discussed this the other day as well. Monger. Pretty decent stake. Uh, I'll just read it to her way through is common here. 16% of monger's portfolio is in Baba between 180 and 200. Uh, I'll take your word for it on that. I don't know the exact numbers, but I'm sure it's somewhere around there.

180 and 200. Why what in Baba? W what shares you mean? No, no price. Oh yeah, yeah. Yeah. That makes sense too. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Yes, we Charlie, when time to grind, Michigan, right? It definitely. Wasn't Michigan state of Joel's bringing it out. Uh, but now, um, maybe he's buying more too though, but we'll find out.

That's why I went up to Baltimore. Got this closed. Don't frown average down Charlie. average down unless, you know, you're in a really bad stock. I want, I wanna bring up this point from evil DJ Nevada city. Uh, yes, the, the Chinese ATRs that trade on U S exchanges. Technically don't give you any rights to anything, to any profits from the company, but they trade as if they do, right.

So it's a different pool of liquidity. If you own shares of Baba, the trade on the nicey, you don't actually, you're not actually getting profits from Ali-Baba corporation over in China, but the shares traded. You do get those profits. So, but yes, you're right. You actually have rights to nothing. That's just the way the Chinese ADR feeling when you're owning Chinese, that's just legally have the rights to nothing that makes me feel a warm and fuzzy.

You have rights to nothing, and that's not unique to Alibaba. That's every Chinese ADR in the U S that you have rights to nothing, but that's the way. So that's the way got GM's profits owning GM here. You can walk in and demand some money. You're saying I have a legal shit. You have a legal recourse here where ADR is, are just more tracking the price.

Yes, exactly. They're tracking the price. Yeah. They're tracking the price. Someone just asked if I was buying K web. No, I'm not buying K web. I'm not buying that back. I just got out of that. I don't want to get back in. I don't know what to say on China. I mean, it was so oversold. It got the nice. Back in a felon.

Joel, I'm waiting for the back and up a little bit here. Maybe it is get, you know, maybe this really pop continues because it was massively oversold. Is there room to 55 on K web? Absolutely. There is. Is it going straight there tomorrow? I don't think so. I think it'll have some work to do because there's so many bag holders holding all of these Chinese stocks and the, obviously we know it's difficult to just come back unless you're CGI and with three, a good segue in to dead cat bounces.

And you look at this thing for 85 gets the short, uh, from, was it Kerrisdale? I mean, I think it was Kerrisdale um, and, and gets the short report, the stock tanks down to 85 cents. And now in basically 24 hours, it's back up to $2 and 31 cents. What a comeback. So what do you do when your stock, your meme stock or your social media stock implodes to the tune of 85% and then all of a sudden bounces 150% in a day.

What do you do asking chat, ask Joel, asking Spencer, even asking you to know this is a rhetorical question. It is, what do you do? Elite trader has the right answer, in my opinion, not investment advice, not in trading advice, but when you're in a stock and all of a sudden it tanks and has a nice dead cat bounce, and we know what I do, I sell it and get that, get out, sell that rep that's right.

Folks as chat is learning, this chat is, you know, and, and, and obviously, you know, sometimes I'm wrong, but I said this on BBI G yesterday when it was six 50, it's five 30. It literally fell 25% since I said that, yes, And I've don't trade any of this stuff, not no positions, any of this stuff. I don't trade any of these meme stocks, usually, other than, you know, I guess, you know, the odd time you go into them.

But for the most part, it's not my cup of tea. We know more about mega cap specialist. So I do trade. I trade everything, but I'm not in any of these positions right now, but I didn't take any position at BBG either. But when you get those big pops and these dead cat bounces, there's so many bag holders from 4, 3, 2, that going to be looking to get their money back.

It's up on 60 million shares. I think it's a fabulous selling opportunity today. Just my opinion, uh, trading close to the pre-market high and a distilling thing I'll say is the pre-market high. Is it 2 43? A if in fact you get through that, your next daily high is not over the $3, 3 22. All the comments I have for CEI.

Now let's talk Tesla here for a second. Uh, they had their annual shareholder meeting last night, nothing I thought too noteworthy that, uh, that came out of it. Uh, they are moving their headquarters to Austin. I think it's not a total surprise. Um, they talked about increasing their output at the Fremont factory by 50%, no plans to offer dividends or do a stock split anytime soon.

Um, they Ilan said they may start scouting for locations on another factory sometime next year. Um, but I dunno, nothing too noteworthy to come out of it. Um, I guess the biggest thing was probably the, the headquarters, but again, that's not a, it's not a total surprise to people who've been paying attention to talk for a while.

Right, right, right. So anyway, uh, the stock did trend higher into the, into the meeting. This is what usually happens. I haven't seen it this morning. Oh, there it is. Up on the screen. Um, okay. So it's. Flattish is that fair to say? I don't know. It jumped a little bit. Alright. It's around Tilly and Tesla. Jill has been incredibly muted.

Has it not? Don't you feel like tight range? I agree. Yeah. And again, you know, it's not coincidental that it's a major part of the S and P and you now have the ETF effects happening on this, which is muting volatility. So people are putting together, you know, and, and I've said this before you want to put together the QS, or you want to put together the S and P as an ETF, you grab that four or five top components.

They've probably got a 90% correlation with it. So, you know, in 10 they throw Tesla into that mix now, because if we just go, uh, and look at the percentage of what Tesla is of the QS and of the spy, and it is significant it's whereas in the spot it's top 10, for sure. I think it's top sex. Yeah. I think it's number six.

We're going to look, Tesla is of the spa. Yes. Now, if you banded Googles it's six. So don't kind combine the Googles. It's seven. What is it like 3% to two and a half, 3%. I'm grabbing it right somewhere in that. I will look it up on my, my four and a half. Okay. Spy. It is it's only 1.7, but it is 1, 2, 3, 4.

It's number seven. So that's significance to Google's. We're not talking Google. I know, but you're you're saying it's 7 0 6. Oh, I know what you mean. You have to have two goals. So it's number six. Yeah, because he writes to Google's. So it's number six, it's significant. And you know, you have 500 stocks is number six of the biggest ones.

The quick AARP traders, you know, are right there and they can use that, you know, to get that correlation. So you have massive ETF effects on this now. And what that means is, you know, spiral of sudden tank and Q's tank and test is going to go down with that, but you're not going to see those moves. And if there's no news and you know, obviously on news, any stock can move.

We know that, and you can see Facebook's move 10% on bad headline before, but you know, they're there, if there's news that can move, but there's no news. You have those ETF effects, which is definitely muting volatility. Now I'm going to talk about that on October 16th, Chris brown hair, and he said, Hey, you got a double top here, a yesterday's high, eight or five, uh, Tober fourth, hiatal, 6 96.

Close enough for me, you know, and I $800 stock. You take out those pair of highs and then boom, there you go. Another leg higher. And I will notice that it has treated over 800 and up in the seven nineties, the best clothes has had 7 93 81. That was the close yesterday. So there's a good number. Let's just keep improving on the clothes and take out that 8 0 6 97.

That's a, that's what you need on the downside. Uh, depending on market conditions aside yesterday's low 83 30. Just off, we've got three minutes through for the jobs number. Can you preview that for me? Because I'm going to go trade that number. I'm going to leave you guys for about five minutes and that you in one minute.

So give me the preview. So I kind of know what to expect from first. Remember, I know it's hard. Think back two months ago, the jobs number came in a very, very, very big miss, only 235,000 jobs added in August, uh, compared to like 800 and 900,000 in the prior months. Anyway, the estimate for last month for September is 500,000 jobs.

That is the estimate for the non-farm payrolls figure. Unemployment expect expected to take down to 5.1% from 5.2%, uh, the prior month. So 5.1% unemployment, 500,000 on nonfarm payrolls. Those are your bogeys. Uh, remember we are coming off a month, uh, um, uh, August, which was a, uh, a surprising. Surprisingly big miss.

So that's where we're at now. 500,000 jobs, 5.1% unemployment. Those are the numbers we want to see. Let's see what we will see in three minutes and reminder, actually, you know what? I don't know how much these numbers really matter today because the fed has one more meeting on the books. Anyway, I think right.

The FOMC has one more meeting on the books for this year. And they've already said, they're going to announce when they're going to start tapering by the end of the year. So there, they're probably going to announce it at the next meeting, regardless. I don't know how much this changes the picture, but I guess what, I guess we'll find out if it's a big beater, because someone's getting a little jumpy, choppy getting shot.

So the two things, the way I approach these numbers is I watched spy and I watched the TLT. Those will give me indicators, the TLT, obviously give me indicators for the banks, give me indicators for any, you know, high dividend rates, types of plays. And then you're watching spy two. And sometimes they both go in the same direction.

A lot of times they go in opposite directions. So keep that in mind. We are really getting choppy here. I'm going to go move. So I don't get picked off, move some orders and I will be back with you hopefully in a few minutes. Joel Spencer. Oh, wow. Um, I'm looking at that. Whoa. Look at that chart on the top there.

Yeah. Bulls and bears are battling it out here. I'll just give you the technical setup here. We know that, uh, when fundamental information comes out, Titan metals, I have a little bit less meeting, uh, but we're looking at a one minute chart here on the upper left and someone was jamming it in fat. Okay.

We're going to get out and take out that pre-market high. The pre-market ISE 44 0 3 in a quarter and nothing there. I mean, I have nothing there. Someone decided to sell. There are a group of sellers. Yesterday's highs, the big number on the upside. That's a 44 21. And there's not much above that on the downside.

We're up seven and a half handles. The close was 43 9. That's above the pre-market low. The pre-market low comes in and 82, a coroners. So let's see what they do. Can you, can they get it read on this number, take it below 43 90 or can I just bust through that? Pre-market I have 44 0 3 and a quarter, and really, really opens up after that.

So here we go. Uh, jobs number eminent, we go and I'm going to do my best to get it to you as quickly as I can with my laptop, it's been a little bit shell happy. They don't like it. They don't like it. Not a good number. Yeah, I competed bitch coming in here. Thank you. Thank you. Save me, Mitch. My computer's failing me.

I'll let you pull that number. I'm one of the things that I'm kind of interested in finding out is we had a sound spec, but kind of filled down towards 43 35 today. You got something Spence. That is whoa. Okay. Yeah. So remember 500,000 jobs. Was your estimate 194,000 was your actual non-farm payroll figures.

So, uh, not nearly as many new jobs add to the last month as expected. That's two months in a row. That's two months in a row of big misses on the non-farm payroll figure. Uh, unemployment rate did go down more than expected 4.8% versus 5.1% estimate. So, so that's that's okay. But uh, far, far fewer jobs added again.

Last month then we found that in any revisions to the priors month, uh, uh, yes, the that's a great question. Well, the August payrolls were revised, um, higher, uh, two, 366,000. So not quite as bad as, as the PRI as the prior reading would indicate, uh, July was revised higher as well. So the last year that the August and July figures were revised higher, not as bad as, as maybe they, we initially thought, uh, I'm sure this month will be revised higher as well, but regardless, uh, that's a pretty substantial gap though, between a 500,000 estimate and 194,000 actual.

So you, you would, if it is revised higher to, you know, 2 50, 300, it's still a big miss. Um, as far as what this means, I'm going to stick with what I said before. Probably nothing. The Fed's probably still going to announce to taper at some point here, imminently. But I'm watching that candle on the, on the top left a chart there, Joel and oh yeah, we are really moving.

Yeah. And uh, someone mentioned in the chat and I mentioned this a while ago, the old stagflation rehab inflation, excuse me, into a, a slowing economy, which is the exact worst situation that you want to see. Uh, this surely doesn't give any boost to the banks, right? As far as rates gone up with the economy.

So you see JP Morgan, uh, that's trading down 35 cents. And the spoos are getting hit here. Uh, we are heading for that. Pre-market low of 82 and a quarter, a decidedly yesterday's rally, um, is now fading and fading hard. We may see the top of that range of the, that three day, four day training range we had, but, uh, the street not liking the number.

So I don't know if it's, if it's, you know, people still live in off those unemployment checks at the store and not wanting to work. I was thinking that's what I was thinking too, you know, uh, historically when there's a big miss in the unemployment, the non-farm payroll figure, we, we blame the employer. We say, oh, there's not, there's not enough jobs being added.

Um, but I'm wondering if this is just a case of there's not enough jobs being accepted. Right. Like, like maybe, maybe the jobs are there. They're just not being taken. Actually. Don't we know the jobs are there right now. They're not being, they're not being taken. Uh, so that, that shows up on the figure regardless.

Um, I mean, I liked the fact the unemployment went down to 4.8%, right? So there's this, it's hard to square the circle. It's hard to make sense of this because the unemployment number is good. The non-farm payroll is bad. They seem to go against each other. I'm not quite sure how to make sense of that. Oh, gold rallies, colds rallying right now.

So this is, you know, uh, it's the opposite. I will say gold here. Is that an important area? I was looking at the daily visit this, uh, 1771 area, 71 and a half right here. Para highs. So important for gold. I mean, I don't think that this is, uh, really inflationary numbers. I don't know why gold is rallying here.

Bitcoin is sold off at times a little bit market it's. I mean, we sold off, we just, now we're back at on change. We did not make a new pre-market low, which is good. So really, I mean, we've had some movement, but overall pretty subdued because tomorrow. Taken out the pre-market high would have been a bullish indication they'd taken out.

The pre-market low would have been a little of a bearish indication. And I'd say, if we go back up, what, what time? What did we start? This eight 30 number here we are almost, I think it was 43 95. That was God. Where did we end? The eight 30. Eight 30 bar. We ended at, um, 4,398, so that sets and I'll throw another number in there for the bowls and the barriers to decide.

That's where we were before the jobs number came out. And now just training a little bit on change. As we said, this doesn't look great for, uh, interest rates going up. Uh, let's see here, first of all, to see how the TLT is responding, TLT skinhead, uh, and the banks are getting head. So that's a little bit of a conundrum there, but, uh, let's see.

What else to consider is that wages? I mean, wages did go up average, hourly earnings would go up. Um, uh, I, you know, I don't know if they went up maybe enough to clearly they didn't go up enough to, to, to incentivize enough job, uh, enough job growth, but, um, hourly earnings are increasing. That would seem to be a good thing too, but I don't know.

I guess my first thought is we always blame it on a jobs number myths on the lack of availability of jobs. I don't know if that's the issue here. I think it's just an issue of people just not taking the jobs for a variety of, it's not one reason why obviously, but, um, yeah, this is, this is a, this is a bit confused.

That's where I'm almost 30, 43 94 found buyers in the 43 80 handle. And, uh, we, when we started out 43 98, uh, crude, that's up 61 cents. It's rally and a little bit off the high Gold's catching the bid off this Silver's catching the bid. Bitcoin's still in degree. And, uh, Ethereum is still in the green, but fighting back.

Um, oil's up? I don't think that I know one minute, I don't think that moved. Yeah. Moved a little bit off the number. Uh, but you got a big number on the upside today for oil high, the move, uh, 79, 78. You got the 79 66 today. Uh, so oil is trying to hang in there. Spoos fight their way back. Um, are we, uh, are we having marked your son today?

I'm waiting here. We're supposed to have Marcus today. I shot him a note. I'm going to text him real fast. We were supposed to have Marcus on the show, um, and I'm waiting for him to join us because we miss Marcus. So I'm doing that in the background, um, by the dippers are present in, in the pre-market yeah, under, under 43 now.

Um, I mean, this is just a chop market. So as traders again, you know, we talked about this at eight o'clock by the dip, saw the rep. I mean, you're seeing it right here. And obviously we got down about 14 handles lower than this, and they turned around, they started buying them again. So the buy, the dip mentality, you're not going to break it, especially after the last couple of days.

So you get that dip back and what do you do? You buy it? So I don't know where we're going to, you know, we have a wide open, we have more volatility. You're going to get more adepts here. I don't know if this was just the depth of buy and now where it's going to rip higher from here or not. I was hoping we'd fill the gap.

We didn't do that. We filled a little bit of it, but not nearly enough. So on the gap on spy, I'm talking about, but again, same story. You get that. There's not a lot of fear. Like I was the same way. I was like, okay, I'm buying some spy. And I bought some at 4 30, 8 30 and 4 30, 8 40. Um, because you could just feel it like that's, we're chopping around enough that they're probably gonna come back.

So not, uh, you know, uh, obviously, you know, nothing's right all the time. Nothing's a hundred percent, but yeah, this, this, this by the dev mentality out here at stronger than ever, no fear, you said just now there's no fear. I didn't have fear either on the number. Oh my goodness. What's going on? I'm like, all I'm thinking is everybody that's caught short from last couple of days is gonna be using any type of adept to buy.

Maybe we should have said that before the show started too, but I mean, this is just, you know, rinse and repeat. I've been tweeting it almost every day by the depth side of the rep rinse and repeat, and it has been working. Like crazy in this market environment. Yeah, we did take out, uh, took out the pre-market I, uh, oh three and a quarter go to oh 7, 75 years.

So, uh, we fact we couldn't take out the pre-market low, got pretty darn close by. So I'm sure that people were looking for file through, through that. I think, I think you're gonna have a seaside day, you know, it just kind of the way it feels like from the way it reacted off the number, I will say the fed fund futures have fully priced in a rate hike by the end of next year.

So the rates are going to go off the floor. So the market says, um, in the next 13 months, 14. At some point anyway, let's move on. Alright. I, I did just text Marcus. I don't know where he's, where he's at. We were all excited for mark. I know, I apologize. I emailed him. Uh, we're waiting for Marcus. In the meantime though, we have a fun little segment here, uh, prepared Mitch yesterday, did some real boots on the ground channel checks.

He got out of the trade cave and he went out into the world, the outside where the sun is and he, and he did some research. Mitch, tell us, what did you see? All right. First things first is this muted Mitch or money? Mitch? I don't know. I got to go check you here. You making sure here, just making sure they didn't want in mind you again.

You're good to go. Let's go ahead. At least the video for sure. Should have audio here. So what I did was I did some research for us because I personally had been trying to go long on bros. I missed it on the IPO open. I've been looking for it to settle down a little bit solid, settled down, took my shot yesterday.

Just took the starter position, looking for a little bit of a dip today to add to the average, but we'll see what happens at the open here. But what I really wanted to do was research on burros Dutch brothers versus Starbucks, right? And so I said, you know what? Let's let's, let's, let's go on over to the Dutch bros.

Let's go find out exactly what the hype is all about. All right. So a lot of people have been asking me what's all the hype about with the Dutch bros coffee. This is what it's all about. Guys. Look, I'm going to show you guys here.

This is Starbucks, Starbucks. Right? You see anybody in that low look, one car, one car going into the parking lot. We're about to show you right across the street. You see those cars waiting over there. That's what they're waiting for. They're waiting for Dutch bros. Look at the empty Starbucks right now.

Let's go ahead and let's let's let's go get a coffee. All right. That was step one. And then we went to step two, which really this is going to be the one that I think really got me over the level and should get you to at least think about this as an investment or come to the Dutch bros. Look at this double lines.

Two lines. That one that's true lines guys. What time was this at? This was at 12 in the afternoon. This isn't, this is noontime. This is not nine in the morning. This is not seven in the morning when people are getting their coffee. This is in the middle of the day. When most people are grabbing lunch, people are out here grabbing their coffee because they need it.

They got to have it. And one thing I definitely could see was that Starbucks had not a single car in the drive-through. When I was going through this drive through. And yet there was about 20 cars in this. You guys tell me what you guys think. That's crazy. That's crazy. The Dutch bros, man, I'm in are these popping up?

Cause I've never been to one of these, like a believer. They don't have them near us. Th th they're not where, where, so this is only out in Colorado. This is in well, it's in the west. It's in the west, you know, you gotta think it's Oregon, Washington, Colorado, California, maybe. Yeah, it did. He was great. It was way better than Starbucks.

I'll tell you that. He was just saying. Hi, you got to write. I mean, you got, I become a Brose now I'm a bureau

called Dutch Dutch brothers, and it's just the cert forum. It's just, do you want to be a bro? Do you want to be a burrows? We learned. So the pair trade is to short Starbucks and by Dutch brothers. That's that? That's what the crowd was saying yesterday. That's it? That's the Paris trade. If you want to learn a little bit more about Paris trading, can I tell you guys on the 16th, you just might learn from this guy.

Pairs traitor right here. That's what we do. Come check out. Base trading calls, take advantage of any efficiencies. Do they got food there? Yeah, they got a concession stand. Joel, they got hot dogs. They got it all popcorn. What about cigars? So the real key thing that I also, we talked about Spencer and I talked about, uh, bros was that it's a very small location.

You can't go on the inside. You can only walk up and get your coffee or go through the drive-through. I think this actually gives them an advantage over Starbucks that tried to do more of an in-person experience going inside. And I think really we're getting to the point in, in, in, in day where that experience is starting to change and the culture is more.

Let me grab my coffee and get back. Okay. At that segment money match. What do you think has happened when you venture out of your house, which I'm not allowed to hold your iPhone up when you redo that? Yeah, man. Well, I don't have an iPhone, Jill, I'll be honest. I'm a fan. I'm a droid fan Raza hired a camera crew to do that.

That was on the ground. Boots on the ground. Benzinga style. It's muddy Mitch with the report on Dutch brothers. We liked that we should do this segment like every Friday. It's okay. Boots on the ground. Getting in there, doing our channel checks, money match. Let's do some ticker time here. Sure. I have a few minutes.

I don't know where Marcus is. I have emailed him. Uh, I have texted and he is Mia. We hope we can get him on today. What's going on with the spoos man?

what's that? I said no, when it was making the new high I'm like, well, you know, I just said, I don't think there's going to be a runner kind of day. It's going to be like a two way day. You know, you made a new high may that, you know, now are we going to come down and make a new pre-market low and then rally back?

I don't know. It's a higher, the day in is a high assisted day. One of the days you make the pre-market high. I, I don't know. I keep an eye on that. Oh, 7 75. I mean, if your man they stuffed it there, I don't know. I don't want to get old bearish on you guys. I'm not buying, day's going to be on the short side.

Write that down on a sticky note, do not chase. This is not the market to chase, not the market to chase. We have not been in the market to chase for a long time. We are in the contrarian dream trade right now where everything's just chopped and slop and your fake moves. You're making money by dip, sell reps until we start getting into a trending market.

So you have different types of markets. Your first thing as a trader is then identify what kind of market. Overall, you look at the 90 day trial, you can get a feel for what kind of market, where and what kind of market we're in. Bring up your IWM. It'll give you a really good field. It's like this what's today.

Look like . If you're buying up here. Oh, let's go on. I got to buy. Oh, no, what's going on. I gotta sell. You're doing it backwards. So by when it's required, Joel, all just focused on, we know. Directional bets right here. But you know what? I don't focus on directional bets, not focusing on, I think this market's going higher.

I think as far as going, I just had a big rip. I'm going to take some profits. I'm going to maybe short some stocks has had a big dip. I'm going to take some profits on some of my shirts, maybe buy some stocks, just like that, going back and forth and back and forth. You know, that's the way this, the trade, this market it's fade.

The fade trade. We were in the 20, 20 trending mark and anybody who started in 20, 20, only new trending markets. Oh, we buy the dip on the trend and we make money. You're not in the trending market anymore. We are in a contrarion market. That's what we are overall. That's why we're looking at big moves. And that's why when you get a big move, you take your profits because if you don't, the market will take them away for you.

Alright. Alright. Come and we'll see. We'll see what happens today. Pre-market low stands at 80 to one. O'clock. Uh, pre-market I getting farther away? Oh, 7 75. Maybe you'll get that gap. Fill today, triple D down to that. Uh, even though there's no gap in the S and P's, but there isn't a spy. So a lot of that action here off that number.

Um, I mean, one thing, if you really think about it, like really macro. Not good news, right? Is that, I mean, is he ill? We got to find out the reasons, but this is, I mean, the news they gave us today is certainly not good. I don't know if anything is really bad news either though I've been in the believer of this market where if you're looking and you're trying to trade and get short on the bad news, it's been a tough go.

Trying to interpret news is a difficult task in itself. And I do participate in that task, but interpreting macro headlines to drive a thesis for your stock, um, you know, purchasing or selling is difficult. I would just simplify it. Don't worry about the numbers. Look at the TLC. Look at the spa TLT actually leaking.

What does that mean? It means banks. Eventually. If the TLT continues to leak here, banks will start to pick it up a little bit. We've seen the banks trade off with the Spire right now, but you'll start to see separation happens. So if the TLT continues to leak, I'd be a buyer of banks. And here right now, if the TLT turns around and starts ripping, which it's not it's leaking right now, bring up the chair of the TLT has so much information that nobody uses it.

How many times did I mentioned the TLT on CNBC, the odd time somebody mentions that, you know, the 10 year, but they don't go up there. It's such a great indicator that nobody uses. So, you know, you're seeing it off half a percent right now, is that significant? It's a good size move. Sometimes some of these days we've been seeing the TLC to sell off a buck or two, but you bring up a chart of the banks.

You bring up a chair to the TLT, do it right now. I don't know you can't hold, put them beside each other. We should start doing that. But if you look TLT straight down for two weeks, what are the banks done in that time? Straight up for two weeks, you think that's a coincide. Hell, no, there is a relationship there, a relationship where you can extract alpha from, and you know what a lot of traders don't even understand that relationship.

And it's so simple. I was on mute. Sorry. Let's do some takers from the chat. Uh, let's look at one that we haven't talked about much. Uh, Oatley, O T L Y. This is from Edward Edward, a pure puree. G French, maybe. I don't know. I'm reading off the chat OTL. Why recent IPO, although I'm not very good at it. What is the symbol?

OTL. Y yeah. What does this company do? I don't even know anything about this.

No, uh, beyond meat style then, like, I don't know. I know nothing about this company that does Oak milk. It sounds like, you know, one of those health stocks that got whacked and it's been getting whacked for the last month stocks in a horrible downtrend, is it oversold massively? Are there bag holders all over this thing?

Yes, there is. Would I be selling the rip? Yes, I would. My opinion. Okay. Uh, struggling currently, we're struggling right now. Now he was struggling. We were at the highs of the prima. Why are we up a buck on this? Is there some good news on it? Did someone say something that they liked it or something? Do you know?

Like there's a ratings change. I'm trying to point it out here. Give me one quick, second. Uh, I don't, I keep an eye on, uh, you know, if you bought this bounce over the last couple of days, you want to really see a file through, uh, through, uh, 16, 21 hired 16, all wait, 16, 21. I think things really open up after that, if you want.

I don't know if it's going to fade today, but if you want to try and pick it up on a fade, uh, the top of yesterday's range is 1495. So not much resistance until the lower 16 Andel. And if you're wanting to buy it back on the DEP, uh, and you don't want to buy the head of a gap fill or out a gap, fill 1495.

I think Emily tried this and then I don't think she liked.

Doesn't sound very appealing to me now. Now I don't even know. What about, what about Qualcomm here from Zachary Qualcomm? Qualcomm. It's been awhile. I've had this in my long-term portfolio. I hardly ever trade this stock too. I should start trading it more, but I've had this in the long-term portfolio. It was the one stock that I bought in March of 2020.

And I've stuck with it. It's been a double for me. I don't know. You're at some major support at 1 25. It's got a 2% dividend. I don't think it's going back to a hundred. I'm just saying. Uh, not doing much. Pre-market trading up just a tad. Uh, the told yesterday, excuse me, hold yesterday's love at 1 27 58.

You're already above that. And, uh, the next minor resistance point, I think he got some room up here to one 30. If you're looking at a shorter term trade, your four and five day highs, 1 29, 79 to one 30. All right. Couple people asking about, um, where and infrastructure mic. This is a company that recently spun off one of its assets to private equity firm.

And today is they're going, ex-dividend on the special dividend today. So that's why it's not actually down 80% or whatever. Uh they're uh, they're paying a $37 38 cent per share special dividend, uh, and it goes X today. So actually up 9%, it's a symbol mic. So they spun off the majority of their business.

Obviously it sounds like $3 and 31 census, the adjusted clothes. It's a 360 1. It's actually trading up 9%, right. From where it closed with considering the spinoff. But obviously, you know, it's only an extra 30 cents from $40. So it's not like your bank, you know, a hell of a lot of coin on that on, but it's up 30 cents from our closed.

So don't freak out. It may look like down 90% where 80, but it's not, it's not. So there's that. Uh, okay. Someone asked about Netflix, please. You said, please, Netflix. Okay. It's a such a monster. It continues to go up. It's been the driver of, you know, it's been a driver for Fang rally, obviously it's the end and Fang, and it's been a driver here.

Um, you've got a candle. Is it over bought? Absolutely. Doesn't need a pull back maybe, but the stock has just, you know, on a monster tear, the content that they keep pumping out. Some of it's good. Some of it's bad, but there's so much content and I've become a firm believer when it, when Disney came up with, with Disney plus, I was like, this is going to be, you know, uh, a big competitor to Netflix.

And I've realized now that Disney it's problem with Disney plus is that they're too concerned about putting out only good content. Netflix, Tom. So content and I looked at everything out there, everything out there, and you look at Disney plus, and I was like, I don't have any new content. They come up with like three, four new shows a week.

It's so slow. Netflix. They're like 50 new shows a week. Okay. 25 of them soccer. 30 of them suck, but there's some good stuff in there. So I don't know what Disney's got to do, but they've got to start pumping out a hell of a lot more content. If they're ever going to complete Pete with Netflix. If I didn't have my kids, I would cancel my Disney plus subscription because I don't even look at it anymore.

The kids liked Disney plus lots of good cartoons, lots of high quality stuff on Disney plus, but there's not enough content. Netflix is the king of his it's the king of pumping out content is the best content. Maybe not, but they're the king of pumping it out. Dennis have content out there. They've got so much stuff on.

Um, that, you know, I've realized that they are going to remain the king of streaming for a very, very long time streaming. It's not going away. I would buy Netflix on pullbacks. I didn't like it, you know, two years ago, we know I kind of turned to neutral, um, on it awhile ago, but you can see it's grown into its multiple to a certain extent and only trades like 55 or 60 times earnings, I believe on four basis, which isn't even that crazy.

So they've done everything right. And proven me completely wrong on this. Me and Michael Pachter were wrong on it. Um, I'm not saying I'm coming in and chasing it here, but I'd be a buyer pullback. Somebody, have you seen squid game? Have you watched that? Oh, should I everybody's talking about, I haven't watched any of that shit.

Cause I'm stuck at home. I should probably watch some but a game. Yeah, it's a, it's a South Korea. I believe south Korean show. Every it's like the most popular show in the world right now. It's the most watched show that, um, I think, I think it's, uh, um, the dystopian. I, again, I haven't seen it, but it's like a dystopian game that you have to play or you die.

I'm sure. I'm sure people in our chat can correct me if you've seen it, please. Correct me. Tell me if I butchered that, but I think it's like, uh, uh, you have to play in this game or you die. It's like a, sounds like a hunger games. I, yeah, I mean, again, I haven't seen it. Um, but it's, it's all, it's like the number one trending show right now.

So I'm sure here I'm catching up on the chat. Did you hear, um, the last, um, uh, I think for the season, the last Ted lasso, did you check that out yet? Dennis Spencer. Do you know who his characters are? Patted down? Did you hear about post? Do I know who it's pattern after? Yeah. His characteristics and everything.

No. And who they consulted with? No. Hello? Oh really? Yeah. That's funny. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, but anyways, back to Netflix and, uh, whoever asked about Netflix. Yeah. You know, I'm sure they're a long-term holder and they're thinking about where they buy seller hold, um, 6 30, 9, 10. I'm not going to give you the old time high.

You can look that up on yourself, but 6 39 tens the all time high and you traded below it yesterday. So, you know, it's free to make that red candle, you know, to make me forget about it. Candle, um, make me a new all-time closing high 6 30, 9, 10. That's what I want to see if I was long Netflix. Yes.

Parallels say 28, 6 29. Can I just say on this. Same thing just happened again. Can we bring up the creamer? Because everybody's like, oh, we're going red. We're going red. You know what the smart money was doing by that last dip again again, inside candle from where we actually traded Joel from that. So we had the opening eight 30 candle, which went better by doom and then they bought it back up.

And then we had decided an inside candle. Again, we got down there near that 4 38 level on spy and higher once again, by the depth can't shake yet, keep trading that shop and you're trading the chop. How do you trade the chop? If you're new to markets, you trade the chop by buying the dip and sell on the rip.

And I'm like a broken record here, but you know what? When you're making money, you stay a broken record and you stay on what is working in. Fade. Trade continues to.

I'm going to hop off cause, uh, my folks, uh, miss pre-market prep plus yesterday, so I'm going to hop over there and, uh, cover the symbols we miss. So as a reminder, everyone, next set, not this, not tomorrow. Play that video, man. I get off. I get all psyched up. When I see that video, I'll play that video. Uh, Mitch Avett, this one, that one kid ready?

Pre-market prep plus. So here it is trading from relationships. Hair's trading zipper theme, trading, risk arbitrage, and then we'll even talk to social media. This is your chance to be there. How to increase the odds, going to dive into relationship based trading Pierce trading sympathy, trading basket trading, risk arbitrage, then get ready for the event on October 16th, you guys think we're fired up on the pre-market cup shelf.

Then be there October 16th for trading from relationships to. There you go. There it is. Next Saturday. Pre-market prep.com. Learn more about that also everyone. Hey, please remember that all the information from our show, from all of our shows from every show meant to be used as informational purposes only, and not for investing or training or even life advice for that matter.

We don't really know anything about anything. Um, smash that like button, please. And thank you. I will hopefully be back on camera on Monday, supposed to get some new equipment over the weekend here. Uh, that will be great. And, uh, thanks to all of you for the well wishes. I appreciate it. How are you feeling?

Excuse me. I'm feeling okay. Um, actually I'm feeling a little bit better than REO. Oh, Arielle started getting some symptoms. Yeah. She had the Medina. Uh, she was feeling fine, uh, when I was feeling, uh, sick and now I'm feeling okay. And she's feeling a little sick bottoms just as she like, just this cause, you know, cause not all of us have COVID so we kind of want to live vicariously through you guys.

Yeah. So she, uh, congestion just like me, but also what I did not have that she does have is she's got some like temperature, like she, like she's got some like chills and like sweats going on. So she's, she's trying to fight, fight her body temp right now. Um, which I did not have. I didn't experience that.

Um, but yeah, like you've sounded good the whole time you haven't really sent. Yeah, I felt, I felt not good Monday. I thought it was a cold. I felt worse on Tuesday. I have felt better. Every day since, since, since two PSAs, basically since I got diagnosed, um, uh, no, I haven't done anything. I've just been taking, you know, decongestion for the entire time.

Um, and, and, and NyQuil, uh, but you know, my, my congestion has gotten, I've gotten better. Uh, I'll get the, I'll tell you all about this on Monday or Tuesday. Cause I'll get the Regeneron treatment on Monday. Um, so that, that should probably help. Um, but that's the sample. How do you know anything about how the Regeneron treatment works?

Is it I V yes. It's, it's an hour long IVI treatment. Um, is what I was told. I'll be able to tell you more about it after Monday when I get it. Uh, the only reason you can get that it's because of asthma. Uh, yes. Yes. Uh, so there's. And, but I think for all the well wishes, I mean, I, I, I, again, if I didn't, if I didn't know better, I would think I just had a cold honestly.

Um, but the trick is like, every time there's anything new, you're like, oh, I didn't, I didn't feel that before that's something new, you know? Um, but you know, it's basically like a T you're on I'm on like a 10 day clock. And as long as it doesn't get worse within like the 10 days, you know, I should be okay.

So that's where, that's where we're at. Um, I got the Johnson Johnson. It has definitely helped. So, but I, I think everyone on Twitter, on the chat for other, on some people emailed me. Thank you for all the emails. Uh, the well-wishes, uh, I appreciate God don't wanna text me. They don't know where husband number, uh, cause I don't need that, but um, thank you everyone.

Um, and yeah, I feel okay. I hope to be back on camera on Monday. Um, but, but it's been a strange week, but we're, we're powering through and uh, and yeah, so live training is going to go live in a few minutes. I'm going to end this stream. It'll redirect to live training with Mitch, with with, uh, Ryan, Florida.

I will not be on it. Um, so everyone have a great rest of your day. I'll be on Dennis, have a good day. I'll be back on screen. You have a great weekend, have a great weekend. I'll be back on stream for power hour, um, in a couple of hours from now. Um, and, and yeah, everyone have a good rest of your morning. Go look at the open.

I'll be watching live trace. I'll be watching. Y'all I'll be there on the chat and everyone. Good luck at the open and yeah, stay green.

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