Daniel Davis Deep Dive Iran War & Global Energy Markets /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Steve Jermy
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Mar 18, 2026 Steve Jermy, former Royal Navy commodore and maritime/energy expert, gives concise analysis of naval operations, energy markets, and geopolitical risk. He discusses why Persian Gulf flows shape global prices. He outlines Europe’s import vulnerabilities, limits of strategic reserves, the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force, and how mines, drones, and escalation shape risk.
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Regions Vary Widely In Energy Resilience
- Different regions have unequal resilience to an energy shock, with Russia best insulated and Europe most vulnerable.
- Jermy highlights Europe imports ~12 million barrels/day and has cut Russian supplies, leaving it exposed to price and supply shocks.
End Energy Sanctions To Reduce Short-Term Risk
- Stop sanctioning Russia to reduce Europe's vulnerability and rebuild diversified energy flows.
- Jermy argues returning to talks with Russia and China-backed mediation would ease supply disruptions and lower prices.
Strategic Reserves Are A Short Lived Buffer
- Strategic petroleum reserves provide temporary relief but are limited in duration.
- Jermy notes global SPRs ~400 million barrels equals roughly 20–40 days of supply and take time to release, so they can't solve prolonged outages.