Radio Davos "Everything has changed" - Gita Gopinath on the global economy in 2026
Feb 5, 2026
Gita Gopinath, Harvard economist and former IMF chief economist, speaks on shifts in the global economic order and key risks for 2026. She tackles tariffs and how exemptions hid impacts. She discusses AI-driven investment, fragile tech valuations and job risks. She warns of ruptured alliances, rising geopolitical tension and the return of industrial policy.
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Tariff Shock Blunted By Exemptions And Stimulus
- Tariff announcements had less immediate impact because many exemptions and pauses lowered effective rates.
- AI investment and fiscal stimulus (notably China and the US) offset tariff shocks and supported consumption.
Uncertainty From Broken Trade Rules
- The world has moved away from a predictable, rules-based trade order, raising long-term investment uncertainty.
- Gita compares the delayed investment effects to Brexit, warning harms can appear slowly over years.
US–Europe Trust Rupture Is Lasting
- The rupture of trust between the US and Europe is a major, likely long-lasting shift.
- Europe is pursuing strategic autonomy and will rely less on US-dominated payments and security arrangements.