Wall Street Breakfast Rate-cut plans hit an oil slick
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Mar 4, 2026 Bond market moves hint at rising inflation risks after Middle East tensions and oil spikes. Fed fund futures shift shows traders eyeing interest-rate uncertainty with a new Fed leader. ISM services jumps to a three-year high as firms add headcount. Crypto-linked stocks surge following political encouragement for bank-industry deals. Big-money Nvidia buybacks boost AI stock chatter.
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Bond Market Signals Rising Inflation Risk
- Bond markets now price a higher chance that rates remain unchanged under incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh.
- Fed funds futures show a 60% chance of no change at his first meeting and cut odds slipping versus a month ago, reflecting inflation worries after attacks on Iran and rising oil.
Services Sector Strengthens To Three Year High
- The ISM services index jumped to a three-year high, signaling stronger service-sector momentum.
- February's reading rose to 56.1 from 53.8, marking 20 straight months of expansion and prompting firms to add headcount per Wells Fargo.
ADP Shows Slightly Stronger Private Payrolls
- ADP reported private payrolls grew by 63,000 in February, ahead of consensus and roughly in line with expectations for the official jobs report.
- The host noted ADP's record is spotty, so the number should be treated cautiously ahead of Friday's jobs data.