War on the Rocks Holding Ground: Ukraine, Russia, and the Politics of Persistence
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Oct 15, 2025 
Michael Kofman, a military expert at the Carnegie Endowment, and defense analyst Dara Massicot delve into the intricacies of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They discuss the current battlefield dynamics, Ukraine's strategic choices, and the possible impact of Tomahawk missiles. The duo highlights Russia’s domestic challenges and explores how drone warfare is reshaping tactics. With winter approaching, they predict stabilization on the frontlines and caution against relying on unlikely contingencies in military strategy.
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Demechanization And Small-Unit Maneuver
- Both sides are adapting tactics to a drone-saturated, reconnaissance-heavy battlefield by demechanizing.
- Small infantry teams, motorcycles, and stealthy approaches now dominate attempts to bypass lethal observation zones.
Perception Swings Mirror Political Signals
- Western and European discourse cycles between pessimism and relief depending on politics and battlefield signals.
- Political decisions, especially U.S. policy, shape perceptions more than tactical battlefield swings.
No Imminent Russian Decision Point
- There is no visible Russian political pressure forcing an end to the war in the coming months.
- Constraints on Russia are significant but not yet decisive enough to force Kremlin choices.