Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality 20 – Bayes’s Theorem
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Sep 15, 2011 Harry reflects on his potential for darkness and seeks guidance from Professor Kroll. Harry and Professor Quirrell explore a different realm. Harry defends Professor Quirrell's actions and discusses points with Dumbledore. The discussion about Mr. Potter's tutoring and choosing a mentor takes place.
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Performance Can Be Misleading Evidence
- Professor Kroll explains that extremely polished performances are weak evidence of sincerity.
- He contrasts representativeness heuristics with Bayesian reasoning about what makes acts probable.
Judge Acts By Their Likely Motives
- Avoid acts designed solely to convince observers because those acts are predictable and less credible.
- Judge actions by the mental states that make them probable, not just their outward form.
Recognizing Heuristics Vs. Bayesian Thought
- Harry realizes the representativeness heuristic can mislead while Bayesian reasoning gives a different definition of evidence.
- This reframing helps him see how others infer his motives differently than he intends.