Peter St Onge Podcast Ep 166 Weekly Roundup: Home sales crash most since 2009
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Mar 30, 2026 A weekly roundup covering sharp energy shortages in Asia and Europe after the Iran war. A dramatic plunge in U.S. home sales and the mortgage-driven seller lock-in. How COVID-era Fed policies and ultra-low rates warped housing markets. The rise of stablecoins as fee-free dollar alternatives and lobbying to curb them. Cracks appearing in private credit funds and bailout risks.
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Rapid Global Energy Shortages After Iran War
- Global oil and gas shortages emerged within weeks of the Iran war, hitting Asia and Europe far harder than the U.S. due to their heavy import dependence and reduced domestic production.
- Asia faces rationing, driving bans, and factory idling while U.S. crude and gas prices rose modestly because the U.S. boosted petroleum and gas output since the 1970s.
Housing Market Crash Driven By Mortgage Rate Mismatch
- U.S. existing-home sales plunged about 20% in one month, the largest drop since the 2008 housing crisis, with regions like the Northeast down 45% in a month.
- High mortgage rates (now ~6.4%) and many homeowners locked into sub-3% COVID-era mortgages created a supply-price mismatch: more homes listed, prices down ~7% year-on-year, but buyers can't afford higher payments.
Fix Housing By Lowering Rates Or Accepting Price Drops
- To ease housing stress, policy must either cut mortgage rates substantially or accept large house price declines that would erode trillions in homeowner equity.
- Peter St Onge notes Trump's push to cut red tape and zoning plus Congress's move to subsidize low-income buyers are partial fixes but face the Fed-driven mortgage problem.