Bloomberg Surveillance DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence, Trump Tariffs and Oil
Jan 28, 2025
Ian Lyngen, Head of US Rates at BMO Capital Markets, shares his expertise on the evolving bond market and fixed income dynamics. He dives into the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the oil industry and discusses the complex interplay between tariffs and currencies. The conversation also touches on the transformative role of artificial intelligence across businesses. Additionally, Lyngen explores the current climate for treasury yields amidst inflation challenges, offering insights into market predictions and investment strategies.
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Episode notes
Treasuries as Safe Haven
- Yesterday's market activity indicates a repricing of treasuries' safe-haven quality.
- This suggests that factors beyond tariffs and the Goldilocks economy are influencing markets.
Disinflation and Tariffs
- A disinflationary trend persists, but the potential for future reflation due to tariffs exists.
- This tariff-driven reflation may be overblown.
Tariff Impact on Fed Policy
- Gradual tariff increases will make it harder for the Fed to differentiate between demand-side and tariff-related inflation.
- This is significant for a one-off tariff adjustment.