TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast #720 Global Liquidity Has Peaked with Michael Howell
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Feb 25, 2026 
Michael Howell, founder of Cross-Border Capital and creator of the Global Liquidity Index, offers decades of macro liquidity analysis. He discusses why global liquidity growth has peaked and the main policy drivers behind the shift. Short takes cover liquidity’s impact on risk assets and Bitcoin, China’s gold demand, and where liquidity cycles tend to push allocations.
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Global Liquidity Growth Has Peaked
- Global Liquidity Growth Has Peaked And Momentum Is Rolling Over. Michael Howell shows liquidity is at all-time highs but its growth rate peaked and is now declining, making the marginal change critical for asset pricing.
- The GLI is a momentum measure; despite higher absolute liquidity (≈$188.8T), six-week momentum slowing often precedes broad market inflections within a 5–6 year cycle.
Main Street Absorbs Liquidity From Wall Street
- Real Economy Absorbs Cash Reducing Liquidity For Financial Assets. Howell explains money moving into Main Street (capex, working capital, Treasury funding) drains liquidity that would otherwise fuel risk assets like Bitcoin.
- Treasury bill issuance and bank monetization are funding growth, so liquidity is shifting from financial markets into real-economy financing needs.
Bitcoin And Crypto Are Liquidity Canary Assets
- Crypto Is Extremely Liquidity Sensitive And Acts As A Canary. Howell correlates a 60/30/10 crypto basket with global liquidity six-week changes advanced three months, showing crypto's outsized sensitivity to liquidity shifts.
- Because crypto markets are the most liquidity sensitive, weakening liquidity implies further downside risk for Bitcoin despite long-term fundamentals.