Columbia Energy Exchange Amos Hochstein on the Strait of Hormuz Opening and Where the War is Headed
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Apr 17, 2026 
Amos Hochstein, a former senior energy advisor to President Biden and expert in energy geopolitics, weighs in on the Strait of Hormuz situation. He unpacks the morning’s confusing ceasefire claims, market swings, and what “opening” the strait would mean. Short-term tanker volumes, long-term Iranian leverage, and regional infrastructure and policy responses are all debated in crisp, strategic terms.
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Sanctions Relief Rapidly Replenishes Iran's Revenues
- Iran can monetize sanctions relief by selling more barrels at much higher prices, quickly generating substantial revenue.
- Selling 2–2.2 million b/d at $85 versus heavy discounts previously meaningfully improves Iran's fiscal position.
Reopening Pushes Oil Toward Mid $70s
- If the straits reopen and supplies normalize, oil likely falls to around $75 rather than pre-crisis lows.
- Structural supply shortages and damaged regional refining mean prices won't snap back to $55 quickly.
Gas Markets Face Postcrisis Price Collapse
- LNG and gas face a different cycle: a likely large price collapse after the crisis because oversupply was larger than thought.
- Seven weeks with 20% of LNG offline produced little price movement, revealing weaker demand and excess capacity.