In it to Win it Forget Oil! Matt Warder Says Coal Is the Real Play!
Matt Warder of Sea Wolf Research joins Steve Barton to deliver a sharp update on the coal market's evolving macro landscape. He explains how summer demand, LNG export growth, and rising U.S. power prices are shaping met and thermal coal pricing. Warder notes how Chinese steel production and potential capacity cuts are critical catalysts that could drive prices further, especially as restocking season approaches.
Key companies discussed include Warrior Met Coal (HCC), Core Natural Resources (CNR), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), and Ramaco Resources (METC). Warder also shares his current positioning and views on equity performance, short interest, and risk strategies in the sector. He flags the importance of shareholder returns and highlights recent developments in the BTU–Anglo deal and the potential re-rating of Glencore.
The episode touches on junior coal plays like Colonial Coal and Forge Resources, the return of Mongolian miners, and the unexpected conversation around restarting U.S. coal plants amid rising energy demand. Warder's analysis is deeply rooted in real-time data, technicals, and supply-demand fundamentals.
Connect with Matt Warder!
Twitter: https://x.com/mfwarder
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mfwarder/
Substack: https://substack.com/@seawolfresearch
🔥 Key Topics Discussed
✅ Joe Mazumdar's transition from geologist to mining analyst
✅ Argentina's improving investment climate for mining
✅ Pan American and Abra Silver project outlooks
✅ Top commodities: gold, silver, copper, uranium
✅ M&A activity in Mexico and Latin America
✅ Benefits of royalty and streaming models
✅ Exploration strategy and risk for new investors
✅ Origin Royalty's growth and market success
✅ What's inside the Exploration Insights newsletter
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Chapters:
00:00 Welcome back with Matt Warder from Sea Wolf Research
05:46 LNG exports and U.S. natural gas impact on coal
07:14 Thermal coal demand and oil price connection
07:49 China steel exports and met coal implications
15:29 Warrior Met Coal macro and chart breakdown
18:07 Coal stock trend analysis and market sentiment
19:31 Warrior vs AMR outlook and Blue Creek update
21:46 NRP capital returns and shareholder expectations
23:20 BTU macro outlook and asset deal discussion
30:28 BTU valuation scenarios with and without Anglo assets
31:09 Whitehaven and Australian coal stock perspectives
35:31 Colonial Coal sale outlook and valuation
37:09 AMR acquisition speculation and buyer hesitation
37:59 Forge Resources intro and strategic role
41:44 Junior coal exploration landscape and prospects
42:56 Emerging market coal players and national strategy
46:31 Glencore positioning and Elk Valley earnout
48:45 U.S. coal plant restarts and electricity supply
54:03 Best coal stock pick for retail investors
56:43 LNG exposure and energy sector plays
59:35 Alliance Resource Partners investment view
01:02:40 Final thoughts and coal market outlook
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