Parallax Views w/ J.G. Michael As War with Iran Lurks in Wait, How Did We Get Here? w/ Dr. Arta Moeini
Feb 19, 2026
Dr. Arta Moeini, an IR theorist at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, breaks down how US‑Iran tensions reached this perilous point. She maps regional maneuvering, Israel’s strategic aims, and why pressure breeds hardliners. The conversation sketches realist alternatives, risks of military strikes, and the domestic fallout that could reshape Iran’s politics.
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Capability Over Intent Drives Israeli Policy
- Israel has shifted its security doctrine to view capability itself as the core threat, not only intent.
- This makes any Iranian capability, even non-weaponized, a strategic problem for Israel according to Arta Moeini.
Negotiations Before The 12-Day War
- Arta Moeini recalls the lead-up to the 12-day war where negotiations occurred before Israel attacked.
- He uses that episode to show how diplomacy can collapse into sudden conflict and miscalculation.
Maximum Pressure Produces Resolve, Not Capitulation
- Trump pursues a transactional maximum-pressure strategy aiming to coerce Iran into major concessions.
- Arta Moeini argues this cornering fuels Iranian resolve and raises the risk of escalation rather than compliance.