Talking Feds Redistricting Roulette
May 11, 2026
Mike Murphy, Republican strategist and campaign analyst; Mara Liasson, NPR national political correspondent; David French, conservative columnist and former JAG. They unpack a seismic Virginia redistricting ruling and its effect on November math. They debate gerrymandering reform, Trump's grip on primaries and general-election electability, and how recent court and political shifts reshape Senate and House calculations.
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Virginia Map Overturned On State Law Grounds
- The Virginia Supreme Court tossed a voter-approved map on state-law procedural grounds rather than federal constitutional claims.
- The court found the referendum process didn't follow the Virginia Constitution's requirements and treated the election period as extending beyond Election Day.
Gerrymanders May Be Overwhelmed By Wave Voting
- Massive partisan redistricting is unlikely to by itself stop a strong Democratic midterm wave given observed Democratic overperformance so far.
- David French cites an 11-point Democratic overperformance in Tennessee as evidence that national trends can overwhelm gerrymanders.
Voting Rights Ruling Enables More Partisan Maps
- The recent Voting Rights Act ruling shifts focus from partisan to racial mapping, and Supreme Court guidance may allow states to be more overtly partisan.
- Harry Litman explains this change enables both parties to pursue racially motivated districting within new limits.