KQED's The California Report How the War in Iran Is Impacting Fertilizer Supplies, Food Prices
Mar 27, 2026
Daniel Sumner, an economist and UC Davis professor who once served as USDA assistant secretary, explains how restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz could ripple through fertilizer flows. He breaks down timing for California planting, how fertilizer and fuel costs affect farm decisions, and when consumers might feel price changes. Short, timely analysis of agriculture under geopolitical strain.
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Hormuz Disruptions Affect Fertilizer Timing
- Fertilizer supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz can affect U.S. crop costs months to years later due to advance purchasing and contracting.
- Daniel Sumner explains many farmers bought and contracted fertilizer in winter, so immediate shortages hit later planting cycles instead of instant planting decisions.
California Farming Varies By Region And Crop
- California's agriculture is highly regional so planting and harvest calendars vary widely across the state.
- Sumner contrasts Ventura avocados ready to harvest with Sacramento Valley processing tomatoes being planted now for fall harvest.
Fertilizer Rarely Drives Immediate Crop Choices
- California planting decisions are mostly set before spring and rarely pivot solely on fertilizer price shocks.
- Sumner gives the corn silage versus alfalfa example where high fertilizer costs could shift acreage because alfalfa fixes nitrogen and needs less fertilizer.