The Most Expected Recession in History. Imminent or a Surprise? | Open Dialogue | Episode 1 - Pt. 1

This Episode: Open Dialogue by Axis Bank aims to bring to the fore nuanced and insightful discussions on macroeconomics and market-oriented subjects. Watch our eminent speakers discuss the world economy & markets in the context of the most expected recession in the world. Watch the episode as they unravel the insights and discuss if the recession is imminent or there is a surprise in store. The first episode focuses on the US economy, China and recession. The Speakers: Sameer Shetty, Head Digital Banking & Transformation, Axis Bank in conversation with Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist, Axis Bank and Ashish Gupta, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Mutual Fund Open Dialogue: The aim of Open Dialogue by Axis Bank is to bring to the fore nuances and insightful discussions on macroeconomics and market-oriented subjects. Playlists: 1. The Indian economy – present and future https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLumGv5ckAx3CsfW-Sg8tE1PNtSMD7gcYj 2. Economics of a global recession https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLumGv5ckAx3DrsXrBL2uhjja2a28L9bM- 3. Money - The why, what & how https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLumGv5ckAx3DOnL9ahYX6xdD1zD6DaSfGa2a28L9bM- Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 0:58 Sameer Shetty introduces Open Dialogue and the speakers Neelkanth Mishra & Ashish Gupta 1:58 Why does the Fed believe that in order to bring inflation down it needs to trigger a recession 3:13 Signals of recession and why hasn't it happened till now 5:06 The recent big US market rally and its correlation with the presumed recession 7:45 Disconnect between the equity & bond markets in the US, and the signals for an impending recession 8:40 Why an inverted yield curve is a strong indication of a looming recession 11:42 Post Covid money inflow, consumption of goods & services in the context of the impending recession 16:07 Quantitative Easing & Tightening explained 18:30 The story of the $ 9 trillion that the Fed printed (injected) during Covid 24:24 The story of the $ 9 trillion that the Fed printed (injected) during Covid 24:25 US Politics and the Debt / GDP ratio 27:16 Reversal of the K shaped recovery and impact on equity markets 32:02 China - The new post pandemic story. Politics, communism and the problem of principal contradiction. 35:53 2018-19 A changed China - when titans such as Jack Ma faced fire 40:13 China - their balance sheet problem and the emerging global discomfort towards the country Copyright: ©Axis Bank Limited [2023]. All rights reserved. This video and all other videos in this channel are protected by copyright law and may not be used or reproduced without the express written permission of the copyright owner. STATUTORY DISCLAIMER: By accessing this video podcast “Podcast”, I acknowledge that Axis Bank Limited and its subsidiaries ("AXIS BANK") makes no warranty, guarantee, or representation as to the accuracy or sufficiency of the information featured in this Podcast. The information, opinions, and recommendations presented in this Podcast are for general information only and any reliance on the information provided in this Podcast is done at your own risk. This Podcast should not be considered professional advice. Unless specifically stated otherwise, AXIS BANK does not endorse, approve, recommend, or certify any information, product, process, service, or organization presented or mentioned in this Podcast, and information from this Podcast should not be referenced in any way to imply such approval or endorsement. Moreover, AXIS BANK makes no warranty that this Podcast, or the server that makes it available, is free of viruses, worms, or other elements or codes that manifest contaminating or destructive properties. AXIS BANK EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL LIABILITY OR RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF ANY INDIVIDUAL'S USE OF, REFERENCE TO, RELIANCE ON, OR INABILITY TO USE, THIS PODCAST OR THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS PODCAST