The David Lin Report

One Asset To Double As Global System Risks Unraveling | Luke Gromen

5 snips
Mar 5, 2026
Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees and macro researcher on sovereign balance sheets and reserve assets. He discusses oil and how supply shocks reshape markets. He explains why gold and cash/T-bills are attractive amid geopolitical stress. He outlines risks to long-duration bonds and how de-dollarization and central-bank gold buying matter.
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ADVICE

Sell Duration Favor Oil And Gold

  • Short duration bond exposure and favor real assets like oil and gold during prolonged geopolitical disruption.
  • Luke Gromen says oil is inelastic and prolonged Iran conflict will push nations to sell treasuries to buy oil, pressuring bond prices.
INSIGHT

Gold Undervalued Versus Global Treasuries

  • Gold remains deeply undervalued relative to foreign-held U.S. debt and is likely to rally as reserves shift away from treasuries.
  • Gromen notes foreign-held treasuries collateralized by U.S. official gold is only ~13–14% versus long-run 40–60%, implying gold could double or triple.
ANECDOTE

US Exporting Gold To Settle Trade

  • Gromen recounts U.S. gold export flows: in 2025 non-monetary gold was the US's second-biggest export behind pharmaceuticals.
  • He highlights U.S. shipping gold to Switzerland then on to China, Hong Kong, and the UAE as part of trade settlement.
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