Net Assessment Whither Venezuela?
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Nov 13, 2025 The discussion dives into the U.S. military's increasing presence in the Caribbean and the implications for Venezuela's Maduro regime. Experts evaluate whether counter-narcotics efforts justify military action and ponder the motivations behind tougher U.S. policies, including stemming migration. They debate the resilience of Maduro and potential outcomes post-regime change, while expressing concerns about the consequences of foreign-imposed interventions. Additionally, grievances about research censorship, government dysfunction, and cybersecurity risks in Chinese EVs are aired.
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Regime Change: Quick Winners Or Long Wars?
- Regime change advocates claim quick, low-cost outcomes citing Grenada and Panama.
- Critics warn of Libya-like fragmentation and long-term instability after foreign-imposed change.
Use Covert Tools Carefully
- If the U.S. pursues non-kinetic pressure, use discreet covert options to persuade military elites rather than public posturing.
- Avoid broadcasting covert activities because disclosure reduces their effectiveness, as Jack Goldsmith warns.
Pressure Without A Plan Creates Peril
- Deploying forces around Venezuela risks an underpants-gnomes problem: unclear step two between pressure and democracy.
- The longer forces linger, the higher the pressure to escalate or to claim victory prematurely.