Bloomberg Talks Yale Budget Lab Executive Director Martha Gimbel Talks Tariffs
Apr 2, 2026
Martha Gimbel, Executive Director and co-founder of the Yale Budget Lab, studies fiscal policy and tariffs. She discusses historically high tariff levels, how much cost has already been passed to consumers, who currently bears the burden, and why tariff effects may only be starting to show in prices and revenues.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Half The Tariff Shock Hasn't Hit Consumers
- Tariffs have only been about half passed through to consumers so far, so more price increases are still coming.
- Yale Budget Lab estimates roughly 50% pass-through for durable goods amid concurrent energy-driven price pressure.
Team Discovered Metal Tariffs Can Affect Dairy
- The Budget Lab team iterated late into the night to model surprising links like metal tariffs affecting dairy.
- Martha highlighted the team's dedication and continuous revision of impact pathways.
Firms Are Absorbing Tariff Costs Until They Can't
- Costs have been borne partly by consumers and partly by firms, with companies delaying price hikes amid tariff uncertainty.
- Firms resist raising prices to avoid consumer backlash but eventually pass costs on when pressure mounts.