The LRB Podcast On Politics: Iran and the Oil Crisis
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Apr 3, 2026 
Helen Thompson, professor of political economy at Cambridge and author on oil and economic crises, discusses how shifting energy flows to Asia reshape geopolitics. She examines maritime transit, shipping insurance, and why electrification and North Sea debates matter. The conversation also links energy to finance, US strategy, China’s electrification, and risks of chaotic transitions.
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Iran War Was Chosen But Structurally Likely
- The Iran war is a war of choice but rooted in structural shifts in energy flows that made confrontation more likely.
- Trump tore up the JCPOA, sanctions pushed Iran toward China, and by the pandemic most Iranian exports were headed to Asia, changing strategic incentives.
US Protects A Sea It No Longer Primarily Benefits
- The US still guarantees maritime security but is no longer the primary beneficiary of Gulf oil flows.
- Since the shale boom and sanctions on Iran, most Persian Gulf exports go to Asia, especially China, reducing direct US strategic gain.
Market Pricing Hid Regional Shortages
- Markets have underpriced the risk from Gulf fighting, producing divergent regional prices rather than one global spike.
- India paid far higher prices while US/European benchmarks lagged, partly because China stockpiled and political actors tried to talk prices down.